Single bet of nearly $30 million placed on Trump winning the election, Polymarket reveals the whale to be a French trader

A user who bet millions of dollars on election markets on Polymarket has sparked concerns about market manipulation and the platform's use by US users. However, Polymarket has informed multiple media outlets that the user is French and had no intention to manipulate the market.

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Polymarket's Mysterious Whale Revealed to Be a French Trader

Polymarket has informed multiple media outlets such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Forbes that they have identified the mysterious whale "Fredi9999" on the platform as a French trader. The trader, using four main accounts, placed bets exceeding $28 million on the U.S. election market, contrary to previous reports, and wagered on Trump winning the election on November 5.

Fredi9999's large funds and operation with multiple accounts have raised concerns in the public, with some suspecting market manipulation intentions.

However, a Polymarket spokesperson emphasized:

A third-party investigation found no evidence of the user attempting to manipulate the market. We understand that this individual took a specific stance based on personal views of the election, possesses extensive trading experience and financial services background, and has agreed not to open new accounts on the platform in the future.

Polymarket's Rise to Prominence

Polymarket has garnered significant attention this year, with a total trading volume reaching $2.4 billion. Platforms like Backpack, Decrypt, Drift, Wintermute, and dYdX have all introduced their prediction market products. Bets on the U.S. presidential election have attracted a lot of interest and raised potential regulatory issues.

Following a settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022, Polymarket was banned from serving U.S. users. The CFTC continues to monitor whether international users comply with platform rules. This differs from competitors Kalshi and PredictIt, where the latter allows U.S. users but imposes an $850 limit per user per bet.

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Controversy Over Prediction Market Accuracy

Election betting markets differ in analysis methods from traditional polling, leading to debates on market accuracy. While some supporters like Elon Musk claim that betting markets are more accurate than polls, the Trump winning probabilities in various markets slightly differ:

• Polymarket: 61.6%

• Kalshi: 59%

• PredictIt: 57%

• RealClearPolitics Polls: 49.3%

• FiveThirtyEight: 51%

Additionally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Harris leading Trump by 46%-43%.

Polymarket emphasizes that their platform reflects the probability of events occurring, not the voter intentions measured by polls.

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