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Bitcoin no longer following a four-year cycle of significant price surges? Willy Woo: The market has gone through three short-term bull-bear cycles

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Bitcoin no longer following a four-year cycle of significant price surges? Willy Woo: The market has gone through three short-term bull-bear cycles

Bitcoin has historically seen bull markets following the halving of block rewards every four years. After the third halving, last year's all-time high was more than triple that of 2017, but this increase pales in comparison to the previous two cycles. Long-time Bitcoin supporter and on-chain data analyst Willy Woo believes that there will no longer be a predictable four-year bull market cycle in the future.

Bull and Bear Cycles Shortening

Willy Woo described the peak of the bull market as "THE LAST CYCLE" back in October last year and tweeted:

How high will Bitcoin go at the peak of the bull market? I think it's hard to predict. Previously: Dominated by a simple four-year block reward halving cycle that dictated "predictable" demand/supply; Now: Dominated by a "unpredictable" complex ecosystem that dictates demand/supply before saturation in the market.

On 3/20 this year, he stated on Twitter:

We may be seeing the initial signs of "THE LAST CYCLE." Since the bottom in 2019, there have been three relatively shorter bull and bear cycles, indicating that there won't be another four-year cycle.

Declining Growth Rates

Here's the performance after the last three Bitcoin block reward halvings:

  1. At the halving in 2012/11: $11; peaked at $1,200 in 2013/11 post-halving.
  2. At the halving in 2016/7: $740; peaked at $19,891 in 2017/12 post-halving.
  3. At the halving in 2020/5: $8,982; peaked at $69,000 in 2021/11 post-halving.

As Willy Woo mentioned, Bitcoin's several post-bear market rallies since 2019 were driven by IEOs in 2019, DeFi craze and halving effects in 2020, and the rise of public chains and NFTs in 2021, marking three shorter bull and bear cycles.

Unlike early Bitcoin investors, the current crypto market includes vastly different participants, such as more retail investors, traditional venture capitalists, crypto funds, and the conditions for a bull market are no longer solely dependent on halving rewards, but also ICOs, meme coins, and NFTs. Considering this, the traditional four-year bull market cycle for Bitcoin may no longer be as prominent.