2024 Nobel Prize in Economics winner? Scholars believe Vitalik's contributions to monetary economics are irreplaceable.

The Mercatus Center at George Mason University in the United States, which boasts two Nobel Prize winners, recently discussed the possibility of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin being nominated for the Nobel Prize in Economics on their podcast.

The podcast "Marginal Revolution" delved into the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics, potential winners, and notable omissions, mentioning Buterin's contributions to monetary economics, sparking discussions within the crypto community.

Who Will Win the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics?

The hosts first discussed potential winners. Economics professor Tyler Cowen pointed out that American economist Michael Woodford is a strong contender this year due to his contributions to monetary theory, especially notable for successfully addressing inflation challenges across multiple countries. Additionally, American economist Susan Athey is considered a potential future laureate for her contributions in integrating machine learning techniques into economics. Another noteworthy candidate is Pietro Iorio, particularly for his breakthroughs in the field of industrial organization, although Iorio's modeling methods are not universally accepted in academia.

Furthermore, scholars who have made significant contributions to political economy cycle theory, such as Robert Barro, and legal economic giant Richard Posner are considered unfortunate omissions that should be recognized.

Vitalik's Academic Contributions Will Not Be Superseded by the Rise of AI

With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, academia is facing the issue of diminishing value in technical contributions. The hosts posed an intriguing question: will awards become obsolete due to the widespread use of AI in the future? Tyler mentioned that certain technological breakthroughs may no longer be scarce in the future, as AI could easily generate these results, potentially leading to changes in the Nobel Prize committee's selection criteria.

However, this also raises the question of which contributions remain irreplaceable. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is considered a candidate worth considering. The podcast hosts praised his practical contributions to monetary economics and highlighted his innovative thinking in mechanism design, which redefines the functionality and use of currency. They believe that the economic theories surrounding cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum may seem implausible, but they are thriving in reality.

They noted that traditional economists have lower involvement in cryptocurrency theory, and to date, no renowned economist has made significant theoretical breakthroughs in this field. In contrast, the foundational theories of cryptocurrencies are mostly proposed by computer scientists. The development of cryptocurrencies leans more towards technical innovation rather than economic theory. Vitalik Buterin has, to some extent, overturned traditional economic theories, such as Ludwig von Mises' regression theorem, providing a very different perspective for economists studying money.

What Will the Future Nobel Prize in Economics Look Like?

At the end of the program, the hosts made predictions about the future of the Nobel Prize in Economics. With the deepening specialization of disciplines, Tyler suggested that perhaps within the next five years, the Nobel Prize should cease to be awarded to preserve its value. They expressed concerns that over time, there will be more and more laureates, which could dilute the prestige of the award.

However, they also acknowledged that despite facing challenges, the Nobel Prize in Economics has made significant contributions to the world since its establishment. In the future, there may be winners due to the revolutionary impact of AI on economics, but whether that day will come soon remains to be seen.