Arthur Hayes has an accuracy rate of only 25%, why can he still continue to make money

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes reviewed his 8 market predictions over the past year and found that only 2 were correct, with an accuracy rate of only 25%, bluntly stating that it was a terrible figure. However, he still proudly mentioned that he made money over the year. How did Hayes manage to do that?

Without leverage, buy Bitcoin at the cheapest cost possible

Hayes believes that as an investor, trader, and speculator, the goal is to buy Bitcoin at the cheapest cost possible. This can be achieved by transferring excess cheap energy into Bitcoin mining, borrowing fiat currency at low rates to purchase Bitcoin like MicroStrategy's founder Michael Saylor, or using some fiat savings to buy Bitcoin. The key point is: do not use leverage to buy Bitcoin for long-term holding.

Profiting from short-term price movements is very difficult. Just like Hayes, who only has a 25% win rate, if he went all in long or short on every prediction, Maelstrom, his family office fund, would have gone bankrupt a long time ago!

Why Arthur Hayes Remains Bullish on Bitcoin

Hayes also analyzed the situations in several major economies worldwide, explaining why he continues to be bullish on Bitcoin.

The Federal Reserve Initiates a Rate-Cutting Cycle in the United States

As the Federal Reserve initiates a rate-cutting cycle, the banking system will release more US dollars. From now into the foreseeable future, regardless of who wins the US presidential election, the government will continue to borrow as much as possible to garner support from the people.

The EU Lowers Euro Rates to Combat Economic Sluggishness

EU bureaucrats are avoiding cheap and abundant Russian energy and dismantling their energy production capacity under the guise of meaningless slogans like "climate change," "global warming," and "ESG." The European Central Bank will combat economic sluggishness by lowering Euro rates. Governments will begin to compel banks to lend more to local businesses so they can provide employment opportunities and rebuild crumbling infrastructure.

China's Radical Money Printing to Rescue the Economy

Chinese President Xi Jinping's primary concern with the accelerated growth of bank credit is the pressure of the Renminbi depreciating against the US dollar. If the Federal Reserve prints money, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) can also print money. This week, the PBOC announced a series of rate-cutting measures for the entire Chinese monetary system, and this is just the beginning.

Radical money printing to rescue the economy! China has launched its largest economic stimulus package since the epidemic, creating a short-term remedy.

Japan in No Hurry to Catch Up on Raising Rates

Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda emphasizes that he will achieve rate normalization, that is, raising rates, considering that other countries are cutting rates, there is no rush for Japan to catch up.

As global elites once again suppress volatility in their own countries or economic blocs by lowering currency prices and increasing the quantity of money, Hayes urges that if you are fully invested in cryptocurrencies, take the time to observe the fiat value of your investment portfolio. If you have extra fiat currency on hand, deploy it into cryptocurrencies.

Is Arthur Hayes a Value Investor?

Hayes' remarks actually resemble those of a value investor in traditional finance, deeply believing in his investment targets and consistently adding to hold long term. The most famous figure in the cryptocurrency world is MicroStrategy's founder Michael Saylor, also mentioned in his article, who is a Bitcoin believer and Hodler. It's also a bit like the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, who insists on holding companies like Coca-Cola that can continuously create value and finds a long slope to keep the snowball rolling and growing.

In fact, Hayes holds many shitcoins, like recently tweeting on X about buying Mother meme coin, making it hard to associate him as a value investor. However, I strongly agree with what he said, for assets held long term, never use leverage, and use "idle money" to make purchases, which should be an important factor for long-term investors to stay in the game!

But the so-called value investment, the value of the asset itself is the most important criterion. As for whether cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin are options for value investment, that is left for the readers to judge!