MARKETPEOPLE

The Block 2022 Predictions: Rise of ecosystems after L2 token launches, similar fate for many NFT projects as 2017 ICOs

share
The Block 2022 Predictions: Rise of ecosystems after L2 token launches, similar fate for many NFT projects as 2017 ICOs

The analysis team at The Block Research has compiled all analysts' predictions for 2022 as follows:

Summary:

Advertisement - Please scroll down for more
  • The Block's analysis team expanded to 32 analysts in 2021, a 300% growth from the previous year.
  • Analysts consensus: L2 ecosystems will see higher growth than L1.
  • ZK-rollups ZKRs led by StarkNet will see more adoption than optimistic rollups ORUs.
  • By the end of 2022, over 30 Bitcoin mining companies will go public.
  • Ethereum futures ETFs will launch by the end of 2022, while BTC and ETH spot ETFs remain unlikely.
  • Some analysts predict the completion of Ethereum 2.0 merge by the end of 2022.

Research Vice President Larry Cermak

L2 Prosperity

Arbitrum, Optimism, Starknet, and zkSync will release tokens in the first quarter of 2022, outperforming L1s' performance in 2021. Tokens will incentivize the accumulation of a substantial TVL in the L2 ecosystem, and L2 cross-chain bridges will address the centralization flaws of L1, making it more manageable.

Due to EVM compatibility, Op rollups will see faster initial adoption rates, but ZK-rollups led by Starkware will ultimately emerge as the winner. However, due to its new programming language, ZK-rollups' initial adoption rates will be slower.

The adoption of StarkNet will follow a process similar to Solana's, starting slow initially and then experiencing explosive growth.

ETH 2.0

ETH 2.0's merger is expected to occur by the end of 2022, rather than the initially anticipated first quarter of 2022. The DeFi 2.0 trend will not continue, but new, more innovative token economic models will continue to evolve.

Some DeFi 1.0 tokens will make a strong comeback after optimizing their token economy, similar to the progress of YFI. Cardano ADA will not have a significant presence in the DeFi space in the future, as speculation cannot sustain its token price.

Ethereum will not surpass Bitcoin in the flip, Solana will not surpass Ethereum, there will be no long-term bear market, but some tokens will drop by over 90%, and the overall correlation of the cryptocurrency market will decrease.

NFT, Regulation

NFTs will have another strong year, but not with the abundance of individual image PFP projects seen in 2021. OpenSea's market share will significantly decrease as alternative solutions emerge, adopting community-driven, token revenue-sharing mechanisms.

The U.S. SEC will approve Ethereum futures ETF, but will not approve BTC, ETH spot ETFs. The SEC will also pressure exchanges like Coinbase with lenient listing standards.

All USD stablecoins will not be completely banned, new universal standards will emerge, major U.S. exchanges will not ban withdrawals to unverified wallets, but the Treasury will continue to exert pressure.

Dubai and the Bahamas will become central hubs for global exchanges.

Content Research Director Steven Zheng

L1s experienced a remarkable year in 2021 in terms of price and on-chain activity, but are expected to enter a period of stagnation in the coming year. Surviving L1s with unique products will amplify their native chain advantages, rather than just having low transaction fees.

In 2022, NFT-based lending protocols will begin to gain popularity, and the trend of financializing NFTs will also increase.