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Bernstein prediction: If Trump wins, BTC will reach $90,000 by the end of the year, but if Biden wins, it will drop to $30,000.

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Bernstein prediction: If Trump wins, BTC will reach $90,000 by the end of the year, but if Biden wins, it will drop to $30,000.

According to Bernstein, in its latest report, it predicted that the U.S. presidential election may have an extreme price impact on Bitcoin. Furthermore, many analysts point out that the current market is severely lacking catalysts and seems to be pinning hopes on the performance in the fourth quarter.

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Trump Victory: Bitcoin to Reach $90,000 by Year-End

Bernstein predicts that if Trump wins the election, Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high by the end of the year, possibly reaching $90,000 in the fourth quarter.

The report suggests that this is due to Trump's emphasis on making the U.S. the "capital of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency." He has mentioned digital assets in several policy speeches, aiming to make the U.S. a major Bitcoin mining hub and advocating for the appointment of a crypto-friendly SEC chairman. These measures could bring significant benefits to the crypto industry.

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Harris Victory: Bitcoin to Drop to $30,000

In contrast, Bernstein believes that if Harris wins the election, Bitcoin may not only drop below $50,000 but could also fall to the range of $30,000 to $40,000. They emphasize that Harris has never mentioned cryptocurrencies in her speeches, which may indicate a conservative stance on crypto policies in the future, potentially impacting the market negatively.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani stated:

The crypto market has faced dual challenges in macroeconomics and regulation over the past three years. As regulatory pressures gradually ease, positive crypto regulatory policies help promote innovation and attract users. Election results are hard to predict, but if you are currently long, you are likely betting on Trump's victory.

Market Lacks Short-Term Catalysts

Bitcoin fell below $60,000 at the end of August and has not shown improvement in September, seemingly confirming historical data of poor performance in September.

Bitcoin infrastructure developer NYDIG also noted:

There are few potential catalysts favoring Bitcoin in the near term. As others have mentioned, August and September have proven to be weak months for Bitcoin prices. However, the good news is that October and the fourth quarter are generally favorable for price trends. With several weeks remaining until the fourth quarter, Bitcoin bulls can only actively seek catalysts, including macro news such as employment, inflation, and Fed policies.

Matrixport holds a similar view. Their tweet mentioned that the Bitcoin greed and fear index has once again reached "extreme fear" levels, but historical data shows that Bitcoin usually rebounds in such situations. Potential catalysts may include the upcoming debates between Harris and Trump, as well as the U.S. CPI report on Wednesday.