Non-farm payrolls disappoint, Bitcoin falls to $69K, Mt. Gox to distribute funds to creditors again?

After experiencing a decline on Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded on Friday. The non-farm payroll report was unexpectedly low, leading the market to anticipate a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. The upcoming U.S. election has also added more uncertainty to the market.

Nonfarm Payrolls Disappoint, Fed Likely to Cut Rates Next Week?

The October nonfarm payroll data released on Friday was disappointing, with only an increase of 12,000 jobs, far below the market's estimate of 100,000 jobs and the smallest gain since December 2020. This was due to the recent hurricanes and strike activities affecting the job market.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders generally believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its rate decision meeting on 11/7 next week.

Bitcoin Retreats to 69K, Mt. Gox Distributing Creditors Again?

Bitcoin attempted to challenge its all-time high at the end of October, briefly reaching $73,620, just a step away from this year's three-year high of $73,777.

According to a tweet from the blockchain data company Arkham, the former largest global cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox sent 500 bitcoins to two unidentified wallets last night, worth about $35 million. This is Mt. Gox's first transfer since September, sparking market fears of selling pressure on Bitcoin.

As the wallets are not labeled, it is currently unclear if these transfers are part of the future distribution to Mt. Gox creditors. However, similar actions in the past have occurred before repayments through distribution agents like cryptocurrency exchanges Bitstamp and Kraken. According to Arkham data, Mt. Gox still holds 44,878 bitcoins, worth over $3.1 billion.

However, in mid-October, Mt. Gox once again postponed the deadline for repaying assets to creditors from the original October 31, 2024, to October 31, 2025.

Key Events Next Week

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) will release its financial report on Saturday.

The U.S. presidential election on 11/5 is approaching, with the polls showing a neck-and-neck race. Some analysts believe that if the election results in a deadlock, the outcome may be delayed until after the Fed's meeting, adding more uncertainty to the market.

The former AI darling, Super Micro (SMCI), will also report its earnings on 11/5. Ernst & Young, the auditing firm responsible for its audits, recently resigned, leading to a 45% drop in the company's stock price last week.

The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision on 11/7. The Fed made a significant 200 basis points rate cut in September, the first cut since the outbreak of the pandemic. The market currently expects the Fed to maintain its gradual rate-cutting pace, guiding the U.S. towards a soft landing or even no landing.