Trump trade resurgence, Bitcoin back above $70,000

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher yesterday, while U.S. bonds continued to be under pressure. Bitcoin briefly rose to $70,270. With the increasing momentum of Trump, the atmosphere for betting on the "Trump trade" seems to be getting stronger.

With the increased probability of Trump's victory, what is prevailing in the market? Is Bitcoin also considered part of the "Trump trade"?

TSMC Plunges 4% as Trump Trade Rhetoric Resurfaces

Huawei suspected of acquiring TSMC chips through intermediaries, coupled with Donald Trump's recent remarks on a program stating, "Taiwan steals 95% of the chip business but wants U.S. protection and needs to pay protection fees," led to TSMC ADR plummeting more than 4%.

Trump refers to China as a "war machine," claiming Taiwan has taken 95% of the chip business: Please pay for U.S. protection

The market seems to be betting on a Trump victory, with the three major U.S. stock indices closing slightly higher, while U.S. bonds remain under pressure, with the ten-year treasury yield hitting a high of 4.3% intraday. Bitcoin briefly rose to $70,270, and Trump's social media company surged by 22%.

Bitcoin Reaches $70,000 Mark Again

Bitcoin once again challenged the $70,000 mark yesterday, reaching as high as $70,270. Chief Analyst Ryan Lee from Bitget Research believes that Bitcoin's price may surge before the U.S. election on November 5. He also mentioned that Trump's recent interview on the Joe Rogan Experience has garnered over 32 million views, raising his Polymarket odds to over 66%. However, analysts at QCP Capital stated that while cryptocurrencies are linked to the "Trump trade," the correlation between Bitcoin and Trump's chances of winning appears to be weakening. They warned that regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin may experience sell-offs in the days following the election results.

Bitcoin to Surge Before U.S. Election, But Sell-Off Possible Afterwards

Key Data and Super Earnings Week Ahead

This week will see a lineup of heavyweight earnings reports, with tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta in the spotlight. Additionally, MicroStrategy (MSTR) and exchange Coinbase (COIN) will release their earnings after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday.

On the economic data front, the U.S. Department of Commerce will unveil the third-quarter GDP estimate on Wednesday, the core personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) on Thursday, and non-farm employment data on Friday.

The market will continue to assess the possibility of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. With the U.S. election entering its final countdown, investors' nerves are on edge.