Non-farm data performs well, US stocks hit new highs, Bitcoin rises back to 43K

On Friday, the U.S. released strong non-farm payroll data, leading to a continued rise in the stock market, with the S&P 500 index hitting a new all-time high. As for the trend of Bitcoin, with the selling pressure from FTX through the sale of GBTC positions coming to an end, and the trend of funds outflow from GBTC gradually easing, the latest report released by Coinbase also suggests that the downward pressure on Bitcoin has weakened.

US Economy Strong, Rate Cut Likely Delayed Until May

A report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 353,000 in January, far exceeding the market's expectation of 187,000, with an unemployment rate of 3.7%, lower than the expected 3.8%. This indicates a stronger job market in the US than anticipated.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated in a post-meeting press conference on January 31 that a rate cut in March is unlikely, which initially triggered market panic selling. The S&P 500 index fell by 1.61% that day. However, the market regained bullish confidence on Thursday and Friday, not only recovering from the losses on January 31 but also reaching new historical highs for the S&P 500 index.

Lower-than-expected inflation and better-than-expected employment data have reignited investors' optimism about a "soft landing" or even "no landing" for the US economy. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market now expects the Fed to delay a rate cut until May, with as many as 60% of investors believing that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in March.

Bitcoin's Downward Pressure Eases, Surpasses 43K Again

Bitcoin's recent trend has been similar to the US stock market. It briefly dropped below 42K on January 31 but has since been gradually rising. With FTX's selling of GBTC positions pressure ending and the trend of GBTC fund outflows slowing down, coupled with the latest report from Coinbase suggesting that Bitcoin's downward pressure has weakened.

Coinbase Analyst: Bitcoin's downward pressure has softened, macro factors and halving effect may ferment in April

Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen also referenced the well-known Elliott Wave Theory, stating that Bitcoin recently retraced from 49,000 to 38,500 US dollars, forming a retracement of the fourth wave, and now the fifth wave has begun. Once it breaks 43,000, bullish positions should be reestablished. He expects the fifth wave to potentially complete in the first quarter, with a price target of 52,671 US dollars.

Matrixport Analyst: Bitcoin's "fourth wave" ends, turning bullish, targeting $50,000 in the first quarter