Is history repeating itself? ETH/BTC drops below the low point from two years ago, can it replicate the trend from the 2020 halving year?
The cryptocurrency market has been completely focused on Bitcoin spot ETFs in the past few months. The ETH/BTC rate once dropped below 0.05, but looking back at the 2020 Bitcoin halving, ETH/BTC was also at a low point at that time.
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ETH/BTC Returns to Low Point from Two and a Half Years Ago
In the past few months, the cryptocurrency market has seen a general uptrend due to the positive news of a Bitcoin spot ETF. Although Ethereum (ETH) has also benefited from this trend, its increase has lagged far behind that of Bitcoin (BTC). The ETH to BTC exchange rate has returned to a level of 0.051, the same as over two years ago in May 2021, and it even touched 0.049 on June 13, 2022.
The Early Bull Market Always Revolves Around the Narrative of Bitcoin
As can be seen from the chart, the ETH/BTC ratio reached a low point of 0.016 at the beginning of the year in 2020, during Bitcoin's third halving on May 12. However, it has been on a steady rise since then.
Cryptocurrency bull markets often lay the groundwork with Bitcoin halving, accompanied by positive news about Bitcoin. Looking back at 2020 and 2021, the positive news surrounding Bitcoin during those years was no less than the "Bitcoin spot ETF" in 2024:
MicroStrategy announced the beginning of using reserve cash to purchase BTC
Tesla announced buying Bitcoin
Publicly traded companies also purchased Bitcoin
Bitcoin futures ETF launched
Even so, while Ethereum was facing the rise of new public chains like Solana and Avalanche, it managed to soar against the tide, reaching a high point of 0.08 against Bitcoin that year.
Can ETH repeat history and rebound from the bottom during the halving year? Some institutions and analysts also hold optimistic views.
After Bitcoin ETF, Market Focus Shifts to Pursuing Ethereum ETF?
Recently, analysts at Matrixport, who have been continuously bearish on the Bitcoin spot ETF event, reiterated their bearish stance on January 10, believing that even if the Bitcoin ETF is approved, the focus may shift to Ethereum. This is because the deadline for approving the Ethereum ETF is in May this year, and Ethereum's performance from now on may surpass that of Bitcoin.
Matrixport: MicroStrategy's stock price indicates Bitcoin should be at 38K, and the SEC false news is a sell-the-news event
Aylo, a Twitter KOL with 80,000 followers, also voiced support for ETH on January 3, stating that although Ethereum went through a difficult period in 2023, looking ahead to 2024, ETH has many catalysts and is expected to have a better year, predicting that ETH will surpass its all-time high and perform better than BTC.
He listed various positive factors for Ethereum:
Aylo: Ethereum will reach an all-time high in 2024, outperforming Bitcoin
In addition, specific analysts at The Block Research also predict that factors such as re-collateralization protocols will once again drive the price of ETH.
The Block Prediction | Sei, NEAR to Become "Solana Killers," Avatar-Style NFTs Will Not Make a Comeback
This article is not investment advice.