Bitcoin ETF Approval on the Horizon? Bloomberg ETF Analyst States Probability of Approval in October Exceeds 75%
As Bitcoin surpasses the $50,000 mark, various potential positives such as on-chain data, news, and other factors are attributed to the market's upward momentum. Bloomberg ETF analyst lists recently pending Bitcoin ETFs and believes that the probability of SEC approval in October is greater than 75%.
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Bitcoin ETF Awaits Eternal Review
As of now, at least 12 companies have applied for a Bitcoin ETF with the SEC, including:
- VanEck: Application in 2018 was withdrawn, resubmitted VanEck Bitcoin Trust in 2020
- Valkyrie Investments: Submitted Bitcoin Futures ETF application in January 2021
- NYDIG: Submitted application for NYDIG BITCOIN ETF on February 16th
- WisdomTree: Submitted application for WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust BTCW in March
- SkyBridge Capital: Submitted application for FIRST TRUST SKYBRIDGE BITCOIN ETF TRUST on 3/19
- Fidelity: Submitted Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust application on 3/24
- Kryptoin: Initially applied in October 2019, reapplied for Kryptoin Bitcoin ETF Trust on 4/9 this year
- Galaxy Digital: Submitted GALAXY BITCOIN ETF application on 4/12
- One River: Submitted ONE RIVER CARBON NEUTRAL BITCOIN TRUST application on 5/24
- Ark Investment: Applied for ARK 21SHARES BITCOIN ETF on 6/28
- Global X: Applied for Global X Bitcoin Trust on 7/21
- Invesco: Jointly applied with Galaxy for Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF on 9/21
- Grayscale: Yet to submit, insists on a "100%" transition to an ETF
October Optimism Rises
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas compiled a list of potential Bitcoin ETFs that could pass in October, stating:
The SEC has started delaying Bitcoin ETFs, but it is for physically-backed spot ETFs under the 1933 Securities Act; Futures ETFs submitted under the 1940 Investment Company Act are very active and likely to be approved on schedule. We believe there is a 75% chance in October.
Yes, the SEC has kicked can on bitcoin ETF approval BUT that is for the physically-backed ones under '33 Act. The futures ETFs filed under the '40 Act (which Genz loves) are very much alive and likely on schedule (we think 75% chance approved in Oct). Here's our odds: https://t.co/cSZ8aDsITl pic.twitter.com/DUEvRANvO7
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 2, 2021
The market's optimism stems from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's statement in August that if an ETF can meet the SEC's strict standards for mutual funds, investors will receive necessary protections. Additionally, if a Bitcoin ETF is based on futures rather than spot markets, regulators may be more open to Bitcoin ETFs.
At the end of September, he also mentioned that in recent months there have been more ETF applications that comply with the Investment Company Act seeking to invest in Bitcoin futures on the CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and he expressed anticipation for reviewing such filings.