GBTC selling pressure continues, Bitcoin's downward trend may not turn around until late March.

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GBTC selling pressure continues, Bitcoin

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Grayscale ETF has surpassed $2 billion in assets

According to LookOnChain, Grayscale currently holds 566,973 BTC, which has decreased by approximately 52,227 BTC, or about $2.14 billion, since the ETF approval. Other Bitcoin holdings by issuers are as follows:

  • BlackRock: 33,431 BTC, approximately $1.37 billion
  • Fidelity: 24,857 BTC, approximately $1.02 billion
  • Bitwise: 10,152 BTC, approximately $415.6 million
Image source/LookOnChain

Bitcoin Spot ETF: GBTC Redemption Surge in Six Trading Days

According to Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, among all Bitcoin spot ETF products, there has been a total inflow of $1148.7 million in the past six trading days. If we exclude the outflow from GBTC, the inflow amounts to $3955.6 million. There were two days with net outflows during this period.

Because the redemption of Bitcoin assets from GBTC has been seen as a key factor causing the price decline, many people believe that the Bitcoin price will only stabilize or continue to decline until the selling pressure of GBTC subsides.

Matrixport: Buy Bitcoin and wait, greed index has not reached a low point yet.

Image source/Eric Balchunas

How long until GBTC sells out?

Ignoring the lower redemption level on the first day, the average outflow from the second to the sixth day was $542.36 million. Currently, GBTC's asset value is $2294.32 million, and if the average redemption level is maintained, there will be at least 42.3 trading days remaining. In other words, it is not until late March that the selling pressure may cease.

This aligns with the belief of many that there will be a significant correction in the first quarter.

Arthur Hayes: Cryptocurrency and market predictions for March 2024, Bitcoin will experience a 30-40% correction.

Aylo: Bitcoin's "Sell the news" will not happen when the ETF is approved, Q1 will inevitably see a major decline.

Arthur Hayes: About to drop below $40,000

The founder of BitMEX stated that Bitcoin is likely to fall below $40,000, and he has already bought put options for March 29.