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Bitcoin RSI breaks 80, historical data shows a 50% average increase in the past 60 days, could reach $74,600 before halving?

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Bitcoin RSI breaks 80, historical data shows a 50% average increase in the past 60 days, could reach $74,600 before halving?

Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, pointed out that when Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeded 80 in the past 14 instances, the average increase in the following 60 days was as high as 54%, suggesting that Bitcoin may rebound to $74,600.

10X Research's target price has been revised to be achieved before the halving:

10X Research: $44K is the pressure zone for Bitcoin, with a first-quarter target of $50,000, reaching $70,000 by the end of the year.

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Bitcoin Surges 30% on Average Two Months Before Halving

According to a report by CoinDesk, despite Bitcoin hovering around the $50,000 level, the trading research institution 10X Research remains bullish on Bitcoin.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to bottom out 12-16 months before the halving, expected on April 19, and begins an upward trend a year before and after the halving.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, pointed out that Bitcoin has historically surged an average of 32% in the 60 days leading up to the halving. With the current market price around $52,000, this suggests a potential push to the historical high of $69,000 two months later.

Markus Thielen stated:

As seen in the trends of the past three halving cycles, the closer we get to the Bitcoin halving, the higher the likelihood of a price surge. This time is no different, as the sentiment within the crypto community is generally bullish on the halving, which undoubtedly impacts traditional financial players who are actively buying Bitcoin ETFs before the halving.

BTC/USDT Daily Chart | Source: OKX

RSI Signal: Bitcoin Could Reach $74,600

10X Research further referenced the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, indicating that Bitcoin's 14-day RSI broke above 80 for the first time since December a week ago.

According to 10X Research data, out of the 14 instances when this signal appeared, there were 12 instances of significant price surges, with an average increase of 54% in the following 60 days.

Markus Thielen commented:

When this signal was triggered, the price of Bitcoin was $48,294. If we consider the historical data of an average increase of 54% over 60 days, Bitcoin could potentially rebound to $74,600.

RSI Breaking 80 Typically Occurs in Bull Markets

Market Structure Shifts, Crypto Bulls Brave

In his personal article, Markus Thielen also mentioned that significant liquidations often occur between 6:00 am – 7:00 am on Sundays in the Asian time zone.

However, with FTX and Binance discontinuing 125x leverage trading and the evolving market structure of investors, Markus Thielen believes that high leverage bulls are now harder to eliminate.

FTX Discontinues High Leverage, Up to 20x Only, Founder SBF: We Lead the Industry by Taking the First Step