Glassnode Exchange Bitcoin supply analysis: Four types of holders creating a delicate balance in the market

In its weekly report, Glassnode analyzed the inventory and changes of Bitcoin (BTC) within centralized exchanges, along with other on-chain data indicators, to conclude that the current market is in a delicate balance with limited demand and sellers slowing down their selling, indicating a nuanced market situation.

On-chain Holding Prices?

The market has realized the Market Realized Price, represented by the blue line in the above chart, which is the average price of all BTC the last time they moved on-chain, currently around $24,100. Although this figure is heavily influenced by early large whale holdings, it still indicates a profit margin of 63% for HODLers.

The realized price for short-term holders, STH-Realized Price, represented by the pink line in the chart, is the statistical average price of BTC moved within 155 days, currently around $46,400, showing that many short-term holders are still about 15% away from breaking even.

Meanwhile, the HODLer Implied Price, represented by the orange line in the chart, reflects the estimated fair value of each BTC, which is not significantly different from the current price range.

Glassnode data also indicates that most long-term holders (LTH) are already tired of selling, but there has not yet been a significant event of mass LTH selling surrender similar to previous cyclical bottom occurrences, indicating that risks still persist.