The Block Research Team's 2023 Predictions: ETH Will Not Surpass BTC, OpenSea Will Lose Monopoly Position

The Block research team routinely makes annual predictions on the development of the cryptocurrency industry at the beginning of each year. In their predictions for last year, they accurately forecasted the completion of the Ethereum merge and the flourishing development of Layer2. So, for the developments in 2023, which projects do they favor, and which enterprises do they believe will face challenges?

The Block Research Team's 2023 Predictions

1. The overall macro environment will continue to exert downward pressure on high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. However, the likelihood of consolidation and sideways movement in the coming year is greater than severe downturns.

2. Due to lack of funding and demand, many projects that fail to achieve product-market fit will gradually be abandoned.

3. Mergers and acquisitions will increase as financially troubled companies seek acquisition opportunities.

4. Venture capital investment will sharply slow down in 2023, especially in the first half of the year.

5. Cryptocurrency prices will continue to maintain a certain correlation with central bank monetary policies.

6. The market value gap between BTC and ETH will continue to narrow, but ETH will not surpass BTC this year.

7. The narrative focus in 2023 will shift towards Ethereum Layer2 scaling solutions. The TVL of Layer2 will increase, particularly in terms of ETH value, with zk-rollups' growth outpacing optimistic rollups. Mainstream Layer2 solutions like StarkNet, zkSync, and Arbitrum will promote tokens.

8. Modular blockchains like Celestia will receive more attention and potentially outperform the previous cycle's single-chain blockchains.

9. Failures of centralized organizations and businesses last year will lead to increased regulatory scrutiny. Binance will be a focal point of attention, while Coinbase will benefit from the FUD surrounding Binance.

10. Foundational growth of DEXs will be most significant compared to other DeFi use cases.

11. The decentralized social ecosystem of Web3 will experience rapid growth due to increased investment and activity in this space.

12. With traditional brands accelerating NFT adoption, more users will enter the NFT world. Additionally, NFTs will continue to serve as a bridge between cryptocurrency and art and cultural integration.

13. Opensea's market share will further decline, losing its monopoly position.

In addition to the above points, The Block's Deputy Director of Research, Larry Cermak, predicts that lending platform Genesis will file for bankruptcy restructuring, but Grayscale's GBTC and ETHE will not dissolve. Furthermore, the U.S. will enact a new law similar to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act to prevent situations like the bankruptcy of FTX in the future. However, SBF will continue to deny any wrongdoing, and he will not be imprisoned in 2023.

Content Research Director Steven Zheng is particularly optimistic about NFT developments, believing that 2023 will surpass the peak of last year's $5 billion NFT transaction volume, primarily driven by gaming projects. Chain gaming projects that raised funds through NFT sales in 2021-2022 will launch for public play this year, with at least one game token reaching the top 20 in market value. Additionally, the second wave of NFT PFP projects' trend will be led by lower-tier projects from the previous round, focusing on creating entry-level luxury NFTs.