Past presidential elections have coincided with bull markets. What do cryptocurrency celebrities think about this?

The highly anticipated U.S. presidential election has turned into a tight race, with Trump seemingly making a comeback and briefly overtaking Biden. The cryptocurrency community is also closely watching the presidential election, compiling relevant tweets from influential figures in the crypto community to observe their views on the election results and how it may impact the cryptocurrency market post-election.

Attention on Prediction Markets

As mentioned earlier, the decentralized prediction market is once again in the spotlight due to the quadrennial presidential election. The longest-running prediction market, Augur, reported over $3.6 million in open interest as of the 31st. Another decentralized prediction platform, Polymarket, saw its trading volume increase from 0 to nearly $3 million in just three weeks.

Not only has the trading volume in prediction markets surged, but exchanges like FTX with election contracts and Poloniex with TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE presidential tokens have seen fluctuations based on election results. Sun Yuchen, a Poloniex shareholder, has been updating the election status on Twitter.

Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX, pointed out several phenomena on Twitter, suggesting that Bitcoin's rise on election day was likely driven by futures trades on OKEx. He also noted that early election results are irrelevant, and the Trump contract has recovered from its previous decline (0.72 at the time of writing). However, as Poloniex also offers election products, trading volume on FTX has gradually decreased.

Crypto Community Perspectives

Ethereum Founder Vitalik Buterin

Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin tweeted on the 3rd, expressing that there is a significant gap between prediction market results and poll results. He speculated that possible factors include:

1. Prediction market results include factors like intervention in elections and election manipulation, while polls only reflect the outcome of fair elections (prediction markets being correct guesses)
2. Prediction markets have too small a scale, lack statisticians and political experts, and low liquidity leads to inaccurate predictions (polls being correct guesses)
3. So-called poll experts have not learned from the 2016 election and deliberately ignored Trump's supporters back then

There's a big difference between statistical models and prediction markets this US election; and it's a puzzle why this is happening.

Some guesses:

— 豚林 vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) November 3, 2020

However, Vitalik also emphasized that the third point's speculation is unlikely to happen again.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stirred controversy a few days ago by updating company policies, urging employees to avoid focusing on political and social issues unrelated to the company's mission. Despite this, on October 25th, he retweeted an article titled "Why I Am Voting for Kanye West" on his personal Twitter, violating his own policy, but has since refrained and focused on crypto-related topics on Twitter.

Deribit Researcher Hasu

Deribit researcher Hasu stated:

I know many people in the crypto industry will vote for Trump but won't post anything related on Twitter as it could jeopardize their jobs and affect social perception.

However, Hasu speculated that Trump will ultimately lose and believes his predictions are more accurate than those of so-called experts.

Nobel Prize-winning Economist Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman, the 2008 Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist, is quite pessimistic about the economic outlook, stating that a harsh winter is coming. Krugman has been emphasizing Trump's failed pandemic response policies throughout the year and predicts economic collapse regardless of whether Trump or Biden leads, as Trump will remain in office for another two and a half months.

Even if Trump loses, he'll still be in office for 2 1/2 months. Science-denying Rs will still run many states. And winter is coming pic.twitter.com/2n15WEAEO2

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) November 3, 2020

BitTorrent Inventor Bram Cohen

Bram Cohen, inventor of the BitTorrent protocol, pointed out that the U.S. election polls have significantly missed the mark. For instance, The New York Times claimed Trump had a 95% chance of winning North Carolina, while FOX reported a 95% chance for Biden. Cohen hopes poll accuracy improves in the future and is relieved by the orderly conduct at polling stations.

Weiss Ratings

Weiss Ratings, a crypto rating agency, is pessimistic about future finances, believing that the unprecedented economic mismanagement in the U.S. will persist regardless of the election outcome. The continuous deficit spending and unlimited printing of money under both Trump and Biden's leadership will lead to inflation, with crypto assets seen as a remedy.

As voting is ongoing, Trump has delivered a speech from the White House, claiming "the election results tonight are great," and "they (the Democrats) can't catch us anymore."

Despite the ongoing vote count, Trump insists, "In fact, we have already won," alleging election fraud and expressing his desire to halt the counting by seeking a Supreme Court order to determine the election outcome, without providing any specific evidence.