Matrixport analyst explains the reasons for holding a bearish view: Signal triggered before incidents at 3AC and FTX

Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen has released several tweets explaining why he still stands by the bearish analysis he published on January 3. He revealed that a "BTC breakout failure" signal occurred at that time, which had previously occurred before the 3AC margin liquidation in May 2022 and before the FTX internal explosion in October 2022.

Matrixport Incident

Bitcoin dropped from $45,320 to $40,626 on the evening of January 3, with Matrixport's analysis report being considered one of the reasons for the decline. Matrixport's co-founder Wu Jihan responded to this incident multiple times, stating that the drop was not related to the analysis report.

Matrixport Incident Summary | Wu Jihan Clarifies in Multiple Tweets: Decline Not Attributable to Matrixport

Although the price of BTC did not continue to decline as predicted in the analysis report, analyst Markus Thielen still maintains his views. On January 8, he posted several tweets on Twitter, as follows:

Bitcoin Halving Always Leads to a Decline Until March

Markus Thielen pointed out that despite the media hype about the imminent approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the date has been continuously delayed until the final deadline of January 10.

His previous reasons for believing it would not be approved include:

1. The SEC's five-member voting committee is dominated by Democrats.

2. Democrats do not favor "cryptocurrencies."

3. None of the applications have met a key requirement for SEC approval.

4. From a political perspective, there is no reason to approve the Bitcoin spot ETF to legitimize Bitcoin in another form.

Better Markets Aligns with SEC Chairman

The U.S. non-profit organization Better Markets has repeatedly criticized the Bitcoin spot ETF, a view that Markus Thielen also agrees with:

1. In the Grayscale case, the judge only found that the SEC failed to fully explain why it approved futures but rejected spot ETFs, but the approval is still at the SEC's discretion.

2. Coinbase's Market Surveillance Sharing Agreement does not detect market manipulation or false trading.

Markus Thielen also pointed out that the CEO of Better Markets had previously worked closely with SEC Chairman Gensler.

U.S. Non-profit Organization Criticizes Bitcoin Spot ETF Again: Worthless Gambling Chips

Why Did Matrixport Suddenly Turn Bearish?

Markus Thielen revealed that one reason for the sudden bearish analysis on January 3 was the "failed BTC breakout" signal.

This signal appeared before the margin liquidation on May 3AC 2022 and the FTX internal explosion in October 2022.

Bitcoin Expected to Drop to $36,350

Markus Thielen emphasized that he always recommends hedging risks through options long-term, rather than betting on the SEC's final decision with spot or futures.

Furthermore, based on the halving cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020, January is typically a false rebound for Bitcoin, quickly losing upward momentum, leading to a -14% drop in March. It is expected to reach $36,350.