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Analysis of the price trends of APE and OP from the perspective of market maker Wintermute! Why is BLUR expected to break new highs?

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Analysis of the price trends of APE and OP from the perspective of market maker Wintermute! Why is BLUR expected to break new highs?

The researcher Aurora from the cryptocurrency venture capital firm Lead Capital recently analyzed the market-making strategies of Wintermute, a cryptocurrency market maker, for the OP and APE tokens on Twitter. By reviewing Wintermute's trading methods, Aurora predicted the future price trends of the BLUR token, also market-made by Wintermute, suggesting that BLUR is likely to break new highs after consolidating at a lower price level.

Wintermute Market Making Strategy Analysis: APE

Firstly observing the trading history of APE, the boring ape ecosystem token, APE was launched on 3/17 last year, and as early as 3/4, the APE project party conveniently transferred 1.75 million APE tokens to Wintermute's multi-signature wallet, and repeated the same transaction on 3/18.

On 3/16, the day before APE went online, the APE tokens in Wintermute's multi-signature wallet were transferred to an address labeled Wintermute 1, and then sent to multiple centralized exchanges such as KuCoin, Binance, and Coinbase through the address 0x0000f079e.

Aurora speculates that Wintermute's behavior is to conduct high-price dumping at the opening of exchanges, then buy back the dumped chips at a relatively low price on Uniswap and stabilize the market price with the pressure of token airdrops.

APE Price Trend

Subsequently, Wintermute engaged in market-making activities between exchanges, buying low and selling high, while maintaining a certain amount of APE tokens on hand. Through market-making and dumping at the opening, Wintermute accumulated significant profits.

From the token balance of the Wintermute 1 address, it is evident that most of the APE tokens were sold at the opening, with only around 100,000 tokens remaining. Until APE reached a new high at the end of April, Wintermute began accumulating chips again, selling off in large quantities after the price breakthrough.

Afterward, Wintermute gradually reduced its token holdings and completely exited the APE market with substantial profits by June.

Wintermute Market Making Strategy Analysis: OP

Next, shifting focus to the OP L2 expansion solution Optimism token, which went online on June 1st last year. Despite technical issues causing panic selling due to hackers obtaining and selling 20 million OP tokens sent by the Optimism project party, Wintermute had acquired an additional 20 million tokens before OP went online, and quickly sold them at a high price post-launch.

Related article: Optimism Airdrop Package Hacked, Learning about Smart Contracts with 20 Million OP Tokens

After the OP price drop and a period of emotional calm, Wintermute absorbed chips in the market. The OP price broke through to a new high in early August last year. Unlike the previous case, Aurora found that Wintermute did not sell off. Several Wintermute-controlled addresses, 0x43c5b1, 0xc8373c, 0xf491dz, still hold tens of thousands of OP tokens.

After the OP broke through to a new high last year, although the price gradually declined and underwent a long consolidation period, Wintermute still holds tens of thousands of OP tokens without selling. It can be seen that OP is undergoing a third wave of upward movement.

OP Price Trend

Aurora categorizes Wintermute's market-making tactics into 4 stages for the above trends, summarized as follows:

  1. Sell at high prices at the opening
  2. Buy back at low prices
  3. Reach a new high again
  4. Sell or continue to hold, with a possible further uptrend after continued holding

What About the BLUR Trend?

Through the above cases, we can predict whether the BLUR price is expected to reach a new high.

BLUR was launched on 2/15 last year, similar to APE and OP. Wintermute received tokens from the Blur project party the day before and transferred them to the address 0xDBF5E9c.

Through this address, Wintermute transferred BLUR to multiple centralized exchanges, a phase Aurora describes as phase 1, where Wintermute sold at high prices during the buying spree.

After a few days, Wintermute bought back low-priced BLUR from multiple centralized exchanges and transferred them back to the original address 0xDBF5E9c, which Aurora considers as phase 2, the act of accumulating chips at low prices.

By observing the token holdings of that address, it is clearer to observe related behaviors. After the initial sale, the token holdings significantly decreased, Wintermute continued to accumulate chips with profits from sales, maintaining a balance of over 10 million tokens.

Considering Wintermute's choice to continue holding rather than selling, Aurora believes that based on Wintermute's past operating methods, Blur is likely to break through to a new high after a period of consolidation at low prices, which is phase 3.

Note: The BLUR holdings at the 0xDBF5E9c address significantly decreased on 3/9, most of which were transferred to the 0x988aCE address of the Blur project party's multi-signature address. This address has accumulated approximately 290 million BLUR tokens since the launch of BLUR, with no records of any sales, excluding the possibility of major sales.

However, although BLUR is expected to potentially break through to a new high in the future, it is currently in a downtrend and the duration of the low-price consolidation cannot be determined. It is essential to manage financial risks. In addition, the token nature and application scenarios of APE and BLUR are different. Apart from market makers, other factors affecting price fluctuations also need to be considered.

BLUR Price Trend