Six consecutive days of net inflows, Bitcoin ETF assets under management, and CME open interest all reach new highs

Although Bitcoin has touched but failed to hold above $69,000 multiple times, dropping below $67,000 earlier this morning, analysts remain optimistic about the future, citing several positive factors.

Bernstein Remains Bullish

The research firm Bernstein has consistently held a bullish view, once again citing several positive factors:

1. Approaching election: Trump's chances of winning continue to rise, and Kamala Harris has recently promised to lead in emerging technologies like blockchain. Currently, Trump's winning odds on Polymarket stand at 65%, with Harris at 35.1%.

2. Strong inflow into Bitcoin ETFs: Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.1 billion last week, the highest weekly inflow since the second week of March, bringing the total inflow to $21 billion, reaching a new high of $66 billion in assets under management.

3. Retail sentiment is high: Robinhood's cryptocurrency trading revenue has increased by 160% compared to the same period last year, and the surge in meme coins further indicates bullish sentiment in the retail market.

Analysts at Bernstein pointed out that the ETF inflow mainly comes from asset management institutions targeting wealth advisors and brokerage firms for distribution, rather than from initial derivatives arbitrage trading. The market seems less concerned about the potential risks of a Harris victory and instead views the current environment as an entry opportunity.

Harris Talks "Opportunity Economy" Again, Promises U.S. Leadership in AI, Quantum Computing, and Blockchain

Bitcoin ETF Hits New High in Assets Under Management

According to SoSoValue, after six consecutive days of net inflows, the assets under management of the Bitcoin spot ETF exceeded $661.1 billion, accounting for 4.88% of the BTC market value, surpassing the previous high of $626 billion set in early June.

The weekly net inflow of $21.3 billion is also the best weekly performance since March 15.

Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, recently tweeted:

Bitcoin ETF total net inflows have surpassed $20 billion for the first time, a milestone that is difficult to achieve in the ETF field. It took approximately 5 years for gold ETFs to achieve this, and $650 billion in total assets is also a significant figure.

CME Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Hits Record High

As of October 18, the open interest contracts for Bitcoin at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) exceeded $12.26 billion, reaching a historic high, indicating that more participants are actively trading or holding Bitcoin futures positions.

This data has grown by over 36% in the past two weeks, surpassing the previous high of $11.84 billion in April by over 3.5%.

This does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin will rise. Back in April, after the previous high in Bitcoin open interest, the price dropped from $70,000 to $56,000.

Bitwise: November is Key

André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, told The Block that the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting on November 8 are crucial.

He noted that traders are currently favoring bullish Bitcoin options, with the highest open interest being in options expiring a few days after the U.S. election and on November 8. Deribit data also shows over 3,100 bullish options with strike prices between $80,000 and $82,000, valued at over $212 million, while bearish options are valued at $82 million.

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