Messari researcher claims that the impact of the U.S. election on Bitcoin is greater than the halving of production.

Messari researcher Ryan Watkins pointed out that the U.S. presidential election is a catalyst for the Bitcoin bull market. In the past two U.S. presidential elections, the price of Bitcoin has experienced explosive growth. Watkins claims that the impact of the U.S. presidential election is even stronger than that of the halving event.

U.S. Election Leads Bitcoin Bull Market

As a superpower, the United States undoubtedly holds significant influence over the global economy. With the U.S. election approaching and major national policies such as fiscal policy, monetary policy, trade agreements, and foreign policy all in a state of uncertainty, the U.S. presidential election, besides being election day for the American people, is also closely watched by global investment markets.

Ryan Watkins, a researcher at the cryptocurrency data analysis platform Messari, found that following the past two elections, Bitcoin's price experienced explosive growth. After Obama's reelection in 2012, Bitcoin saw a peak increase of 10,324%, and after Trump's unexpected victory in 2016, Bitcoin also saw a peak increase of 2,586%.

Ryan Watkins pointed out that the reduction of post-election uncertainty provided fertile ground for a Bitcoin bull market, claiming that the presidential election is greater than the halving of Bitcoin production.

The reduced uncertainty following elections provides fertile ground for Bitcoin bulls runs.

Presidential Elections > Halvings

— Ryan Watkins (@RyanWatkins_) April 27, 2020

Hot Potato

This year's election promises to be more exciting compared to recent ones. With the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic causing a global economic downturn, despite the U.S. government implementing aggressive QE policies to rescue the stock market from collapse, issues such as federal deficits, increasing unemployment rates, GDP decline, and negative interest rates will be the heaviest burdens for the next president over the next four years.

Who will take on this hot potato and reverse the economic changes; and whether Bitcoin can replicate its past performance and return to a bull market after the election will be revealed in November 2020.

Further Reading

• Cryptocurrency derivatives exchange FTX launches "Trump Presidential Election Contract," opening 24% higher
• IMF predicts global economic growth rate to drop to -3% this year, can Bitcoin escape unscathed?

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