Bankless releases annual predictions, reviews 2022 forecasts

The Bankless team reviews their 2022 predictions and also releases predictions for 2023. The market is unpredictable, and Bankless humorously acknowledges that many of last year's predictions missed the mark, as who could have guessed that FTX would go bankrupt? However, reviewing past predictions can also reveal whether they were influenced by echo chambers, market sentiment, and other factors.

The following content is compiled from Bankless, for detailed information and discussions, please refer to the original article link.

Review of Bankless' 2022 Overall Predictions

• Incorrect｜Cryptocurrency market cap reaches 5 trillion USD, previous high was 3 trillion USD

• Correct｜Ethereum successful merge

• Correct｜Bitcoin adopted by a country again, Central African Republic

• Incorrect｜Ethereum market cap hits trillion USD, only reaches 560 billion

• Incorrect｜Layer 2 TVL reaches 250 billion USD, only reaches 70 billion

• Correct｜NFT trading volume hits 30 billion USD, Bankless: Does volume matter?

• Incorrect｜DeFi protocol market cap enters top ten

• Correct｜DAO purchases real assets in eight digits, Bankless: Ukraine DAO

• Correct｜MicroStrategy to buy more Bitcoin, 5,610 BTC

Bankless Overall Score: C

Co-founder Ryan Adams' 2022 Predictions

• Incorrect｜Cryptocurrency market cap reaches 7 trillion USD

• Incorrect｜ETH hits 10,000 USD, previous high was 4,500 USD

• Correct｜Layer 2 protocol market cap enters top ten, Polygon ranks tenth

• Incorrect｜Cross-chain bridge market cap reaches several billion USD

• Incorrect｜Bitcoin hits 100,000 USD

• Ambiguous｜Web3 moving towards socialization, Farcaster, Lens, Deso, etc., still in early stages

• Ambiguous｜DeFi returns to its peak not happening, but operates well when CeFi fails

• Incorrect｜Crypto banks successfully go public

• Correct｜DAO sees astonishing development, Ukraine DAO

• Correct｜NFT cross-domain development, only BAYC

• Incorrect｜GameFi creates niche market

Overall Score: C-

Ryan Adams predicts this year:

• Cryptocurrency market cap exceeds 2 trillion USD

• Layer 2 TVL reaches 250 billion USD

• Congress will pass cryptocurrency regulation bill

• DeFi TVL reaches 1,250 billion USD

• ETH drops to three digits, generational low

• ETH outperforms BTC, but 2023 is not a bull market

• Developer community in order: Ethereum, Cosmos, Solana

• Ethereum Q2 activates staking unlock feature, achieves EIP-4844 proto-danksharding in 2023

Co-founder David Hoffman's 2022 Predictions

• Correct｜Crypto newcomers not concerned with centralization issues predicts a complete reversal in 2023

• Correct｜Ethereum successful merge

• Incorrect｜Ethereum competitors make final adjustments to token issuance schedule still with concerns

• Ambiguous｜Stable on-chain transaction fee sources appear on Ethereum competitor chains

• Correct｜Layer 2 solutions Optimism, Arbitrum thrive

• Incorrect｜EVM promotes Optimism dominance not happening, still hopeful

• Correct｜Investing in NFTs less profitable retail investors out of money

• Correct｜Bored Ape Yacht Club surpasses CryptoPunks

• Correct｜Rise of "banklessness" concept due to FTX

Overall Score: B

David Hoffman's 2023 Predictions:

• Ethereum Layer 2 stable development

• StarkNet ecosystem leads all zkEVMs

• Ethereum onboarding applications could be a catalyst for a bull market

• At least one zkEVM project gains widespread adoption

• NFT projects surviving the bear market will develop real-world applications

• Rise in Ethereum blue-chip projects, Layer 2 projects outperforming other competitors

• CFTC, SEC regulatory pressure will push cryptocurrencies towards decentralization

• DAOs continue to struggle, most continue to operate at a loss, only a few focus on profitability

• Bitcoin maximalists become more fervent, led by Swan Bitcoin founder Cory Klippsten

Bankless Team Predictions

Editor William M. Peaste:

• Yuga Labs will clash with the SEC

• NFT applications will drive L2 on-chain activities

• Large NFT projects will be attacked and taken over by hackers

• Polygon NFT trading volume will surpass competing chains like Cardano, Flow, and Solana

CTO Dawson Botsford:

• CryptoPunks surge

• Ethereum will open physical stores like Solana

• Sui, Aptos, or similar public chains will gain widespread adoption

Editor Lucas Matney:

• Reddit quietly becomes a mainstream player in crypto

• Twitter situation will deteriorate, crypto community still won't use decentralized social platforms

Web3 Lead Lucas Campbell:

• Web3 socialization becomes a bull market catalyst similar to DeFi in 2019

Editor Donovan Choy:

• BTC will drop below 28,700

• Ethereum audit issue is minor

• I will lose more money in cryptocurrency

• Countries will launch CBDCs, but adoption will be dismal

• StarkNet performance cannot match L2 competitor chains

Analyst Ben Giove:

• GMX becomes a unicorn protocol

• Competing chains announce transition to Ethereum L2

• Arbitrum becomes second largest protocol in TVL after coin launch L1/L2

• November 9, 2022, is the market bottom, no more triple-digit ETH

• Liquidity staking post Shanghai upgrade sees significant growth, token performance outperforms ETH, Lido dominance will be replaced by Rocket Pool.