Pantera: Halving Propels Bitcoin to Break $140,000, Wealth Significantly Shifts to Middle-aged and Elderly Population

Pantera remains bullish on Bitcoin as usual, emphasizing the positive impact of the halving and citing several data points indicating phenomena such as increased inflation and wealth transfer.

The following content is excerpted from Pantera's "FTX Underscores The Importance Of DeFi", released on 11/11, with some events such as FTX possibly not reflecting the most current developments.

FTX Incident Evaluation

Pantera's Chief Information Officer Joey Krug stated that the collapse was mainly due to FTX and Alameda Research using FTT tokens for collateralized borrowing, leading to over-leveraging, with the specific amount of losses from both entities being unclear.

Pantera took the following actions immediately upon the incident:

1. Evaluating the investment portfolio

2. Reducing exposure to centralized exchange positions

3. Liquidating all FTT at around 18 – 23 USD on 11/8

4. Contacting affected institutions and providing assistance

As previously reported, Pantera's losses mainly came from the acquisition of Blockfolio's equity, with Joey Krug pointing out that these profits were valued in FTT and FTX equities, accounting for about 3% of the asset size, contrary to the 2% claimed by their portfolio director Franklin Bi on Twitter.

He also mentioned his personal feelings:

The collapse of FTX reminds us of what we are doing here, our mission is to no longer repeat the risks and inefficiencies of traditional finance, but to build a more efficient, decentralized, and open financial system. More than ever, we are inspired by this vision.

Bitcoin Halving

The next halving is expected around April 20, 2024, reducing mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Pantera pointed out that although they have always emphasized the halving as a "big deal," the overall market needs several years to adjust.

A typical bottom occurs about 1.3 years before the halving, with the market reaching a peak about 1.3 years after the halving, totaling 2.6 years to see all the effects of the halving.

If historical inference is followed, the price of Bitcoin is expected to bottom out on December 30, 2022, rebounding to the halving in 2024 and the continued halving effect.

Pantera speculates that the next historical high for the price of Bitcoin will be at $148,636.

Data: Wealth Continues to Shift to Middle-aged and Elderly Population

Pantera cited several pieces of data in the article, arguing that Federal Reserve policies have led to the expansion of inflation in the United States such as housing prices, with wealth from properties, stocks, and other assets continuing to transfer to the middle-aged and elderly population.

Post-Pandemic Housing Price Index Up 28.4%

Pantera cited research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, stating that since the implementation of quantitative easing in 2020:

• US CPI rent annual growth rate 5%

• Zillow Rent Index increased by 15.9

• Zillow House Price Index rose by 28.4%

Pantera pointed out that although the CPI only increased by 5%, considering that rent is a leading indicator of future house prices, the future increase in CPI may be faster, thus driving overall inflation risks.

Large-scale Wealth Transfer

Pantera cited data from the US Census Bureau, mentioning that Millennials and young people born after 1980 now account for over half, 50.7%, of the US population.

According to the National Association of Realtors survey:

• The proportion of first-time homebuyers hit a new low in 41 years

• During the survey period, white buyers accounted for 88%, reaching a 25-year high

• The average age of first-time buyers is 36, hitting a new high since 1981

• The average age of non-first-time buyers is 59

• Black and Asian buyers account for only about 5% of all transactions