Bitfinex: Bitcoin fundamentals similar to pre-2020 rally, reaching cycle peak 6 months later

According to the Bitfinex Alpha report released on April 15th, analysts pointed out that Bitcoin outflows from exchanges have reached their highest level since January 2023, while the amount of Bitcoin that has not moved for over a year continues to decrease.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Decrease Sharply, Similar to Pre-2020 Rally

A Bitfinex analyst pointed out that as the Bitcoin halving approaches, a large amount of Bitcoin is flowing out of centralized exchanges, and the amount of inactive Bitcoin that has not moved for over a year has dropped to an 18-month low.

The report mentioned:

The sharp decrease in Bitcoin long-term holders is similar to the behavior before the rally in 2020, indicating that the market may be entering a similar growth phase.

Bitcoin Cycle Peak May Occur Six Months After

Over the past month, long-term holders have been actively selling their Bitcoin at a rate of approximately 16,800 BTC per day.

The analyst stated:

Based on past cycles, this trend usually lasts about seven months and often signals a market downturn, indicating that we may be about six months away from the historical peak of Bitcoin in this cycle.

However, the analyst also cautioned that Bitcoin had already reached a historical high before the halving event in this cycle, so this cycle will be different, shorter, and more intense than before.

Market Focus Shifts to Halving

After experiencing several days of decline, existing indicators including funding rates suggest that market attention has shifted back to the Bitcoin halving.

Bitfinex analysts believe that the outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges can also be seen as investors transferring Bitcoin to cold wallets, waiting for the potential price increase after the halving.

According to the analyst's claim of a "similar trend to the rally before December 2020," Bitcoin experienced a maximum decline of about -11% in December, falling from $19,913 to $17,565, and then rose to $41,950 in January, a 138% increase, with a pullback lasting only two weeks.

Currently, the largest retracement of Bitcoin is close to 20% at -18.68%, having consolidated for a month.