Cryptocurrency derivatives exchange FTX launches "Trump Presidential Election Futures Contract," opening with a 24% increase.

The cryptocurrency derivatives exchange FTX has launched a new futures contract "Trump 2020," aimed at tokenizing users' predictions on whether Trump will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election, with settlement in USD.

• Up to 100x leverage on the Trump 2020 contract
• May influence voting intentions to some extent

Trump 2020

According to the official announcement from FTX, trading "Trump 2020" operates similarly to other futures contracts on FTX. Users can go long or short with any available collateral, and the contract will settle at a price of 1 USD if elected and 0 USD if not.

It is reported that trading fees will be calculated based on the user's base fee rate and the contract price. The contract is now open for trading, with an initial price of 0.5 CNY, currently trading at 0.62 CNY. The required margin for the contract is as follows:

The announcement also states that trading of the Trump 2020 contract is not available in jurisdictions including the United States, Canada, the European Union, Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, Cambodia, and other jurisdictions.

The contract will settle after the announcement of the election results on November 4, 2020. However, if mainstream media such as The New York Times, CNN, etc., have already confirmed the election results, FTX will settle the contract accordingly based on the election outcome.

Is there a problem with betting on presidential elections?

Based on the current Trump 2020 contract, the price indicates that users generally believe there is a probability of over 60% for Trump's re-election. Will this market trend become a reference for the public's voting intentions beyond traditional polls?

Previously, the Ethereum prediction market platform Augur conducted bets on the topic of "Whether the U.S. President Donald Trump will be assassinated by the end of the year" in 2018.

Similar to the Trump 2020 contract, such predictions not only have the potential to manipulate election trends to some extent but also raise ethical issues.

There have been reports of underground betting on the 2020 Taiwan presidential election, with "Who will be elected as president" becoming a popular betting item. According to lawyer Yang Xiaowen's explanation, gambling is based on the premise that the behavior has the characteristics of "randomness" and "determining the win or loss." Therefore, any event whose outcome depends on chance and cannot be predicted in advance is considered gambling, with no restrictions.

The outcome of betting on the presidential election is also based on uncertain facts and constitutes gambling. In Taiwan's Criminal Code, both the house and the gamblers are subject to imprisonment and fines.

Regarding "online gambling," there may be different interpretations due to the legal provision of "public places or places where the public can enter and exit." According to an associate professor at the Ming Chuan University School of Law, "online gambling" has always been a tug-of-war in terms of regulations and judicial practice. Although some theories do not consider online gambling as a gambling offense, most actual cases are still considered gambling behavior. Even if using Bitcoin as chips, it still constitutes gambling. In addition, Taiwan's Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act may convict individuals who publicly discuss the content of bets on the grounds of "intending to prevent a person from being elected."

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