MARKET PEOPLE

6529 Bear Market Chicken Soup: Buying BTC at $300 and Selling Low, Missing BTC's Peak Again in 2017 Due to Refusing ETH Pre-sale with Old-school Mentality

2022/5/17

Famous NFT collector 6529 released a bear market analysis article, discussing common perspectives found in motivational articles such as "long-term" investments, survival strategies during bear markets, using his own experiences as examples. He talked about how his parents bought BTC at an average price of $300 and ended up losing money, how he missed out on ETH presale due to traditional views, and how he missed the opportunity to sell at the peak in 2017, emphasizing the importance of long-term investment.

Table of Contents

What to Do in a Bear Market?

6529 first mentioned his previous articles as a reference, focusing on the second point in this article:

Buying BTC at $300 with a Stop-Loss

Investors may be thinking, "The current situation is really unfavorable, I should sell early and invest less." 6529 then shared his early investment story.

In 2013, he bought his first Bitcoin for $100, and convinced his parents to join in at an average of $300. Watching Bitcoin surpass $1,000, he felt like an investment genius.

However, after a wearying long-term decline and the Mt. Gox incident, his parents eventually sold at the low point of $250 in 2015, which would now be estimated at around eight figures in USD.

In short, his parents bought hundreds of BTC at an average of $300, but somehow ended up losing money. 6529 stated:

This is normal. Among the hundreds of people I knew in 2013, the ones who bought BTC and held onto it long-term can be counted on one hand.

First Encounter with Ethereum

Before the Ethereum presale, 6529 met Vitalik and listened to stories about Ethereum for hours. However, his old-school Bitcoin maximalist mindset led him to believe, "Vitalik is smart, but he didn't finish college, and Ethereum has fatal flaws."

As a result, he did not participate in the presale and, under the reverse FOMO mode of Cope, refused to buy Ether for a long time.

Retrospect:

✅Holding a large amount of BTC
✅Directly pitched ETH by Vitalik
❌Did not participate in the ETH presale

Missing out on an easy eight-figure asset, maybe even nine figures.

Missing the 2017 Peak Again

On December 15, 2017, a friend advised 6529 to not be foolish and at least sell half of his Bitcoin, but 6529 firmly refused to sell any BTC.

Bitcoin dropped to $3,400 in January 2019 and again to $4,000 in 2020.

6529 said:

You are not alone. Those of us who have been in the crypto space for a long time have had similar experiences. This is a normal, expected part of it. The most important thing now is to survive in the crypto market, and the downward trend cycle of the market is more inspiring.

Forget Your Unrealized Gains

Completely ignore the unrealized gains that were at historical highs. That number is completely meaningless and not a real thing. It does not help in making the right decisions. The only thing you should do is assess the current situation and make good decisions.

Accept the Unpredictability of the Market

6529 believes that everyone needs to accept that the market trends of tomorrow, next month, and ten years from now are unknowable, a sentiment he thinks applies to 99.9% of people.

It is necessary to consider broader contexts rather than just price directions, such as:

Prices oscillate for years.
Prices may drop 85% and stay down for years, then rise in the long term.
Russian Central Bank adopting BTC due to sanctions causes a surge.
Cryptocurrency is dead.

6529 mentions that he does not spend time worrying or analyzing the probability of each scenario, but instead ensures survival in each scenario.

Cash Flow

For 99.9% of people, it is crucial to maintain fiat currency cash flow for as long as possible. This provides stable funds for crypto investments, helping investors achieve better financial balance during market turbulence.

He also suggests getting involved in the crypto field, such as developers, marketers, writers, accountants, lawyers, etc., as it is a good way to understand cryptocurrencies better and create a stable cash flow.

Looking Forward to 2030

6529 points out that 2030 will undoubtedly be a more digitized world. If you have been following NFT trends on Twitter this year, you are already at the digital forefront. He urges:

Do not leave. Even if you are broke, continue to participate, learn, and work. If you persist in the increasingly digital world of crypto, NFTs, metaverse, etc., for ten years, you have a great chance of encountering economically efficient and interesting things.

6529 concludes that coin prices will fluctuate, but the trend towards digitization continues to rise and shows no signs of decline.

The sole goal: survival.
Examine your emotions.
Forget about unrealized gains.
Do not try to predict the market.
Be prepared for all scenarios, including a significant drop.
Maintain fiat currency cash flow.
Cultivate skills in crypto-related work.
Separate investment emotions from life and enjoy living.