Woody's Column | Sharing the latest cryptocurrency trends in November 2021

This article is a personal investment sharing record and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is a high-risk investment compared to stocks. Investing involves risks, so be cautious when entering the market. There may be errors or misunderstandings in personal research, so please help verify any problematic areas.

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ETH

In October, the overall trend of ETH remained strong, but NFT trading weakened significantly. In my opinion, funds are flowing back into speculation, and people will come back to buy NFTs to show off their wealth after making money. Personally, I have also reduced my holdings of NFTs.

Congratulations to ETH for reaching a new high in October. However, I am concerned about the mainstream funding rate and the long/short ratio. The funding rate reset on Binance will be healthier, but it is normal for the funding rate to remain high during a bull market, just like earlier this year. As for the long/short ratio, since the approval of the BTC futures ETF in mid-October, the BTC long/short ratio has soared from 1 to 3. This can be considered an extremely extreme figure. It is now certain that BTC futures will affect quarterly/perpetual contracts, but it will take time to determine the extent of the impact. I will continue to hold spot positions.

Looking back at October

In October, rather than talking about the profitable aspects, I would like to discuss the losses and warn everyone. I made many blind trades personally, but there were still decent profits in mainstream coins. Fortunately, the losses from blind trades were not significant, but it is still necessary to reflect on them.

First of all, I admit that I made two mistakes in October. One was the MISO purchase, and the other was the MEME rug pull.

For the MISO purchase, our group planned to participate, but due to an issue of not being able to find the problem, our purchase failed, resulting in a loss of 153 ETH. You may think it was my fault, but I provided the code to the Flashbot official team and even the well-known Taiwanese whale "Lao" couldn't find the problem.

The whole incident became a mystery. It is currently speculated that the relayer was malicious. Before finding the reason, I advise all researchers not to use too much ETH for purchases in the future. However, there are not many people in the entire crypto community willing to burn valuable tokens like that.

Talking about the MEME rug pull is also amusing. A friend reminded me in the morning about this new project, so I paid attention to it. In the afternoon, I carefully checked the Twitter followers. Several big names had followed this project, which had only been launched for a few days. I thought that these big names had done their due diligence or were even behind this project, but it turned out to be a rug pull in the evening, resulting in a loss of 26 ETH. The total investment was up to 60 ETH at one point, but fortunately, I managed to recover some, which was considered a lucky escape.

Next, I need to reflect on investing in AURY. Learning from the lesson of PRT, because it was listed on FTX before trading began, I thought this time it was to regain credibility and let everyone make money. However, it turned out to be a project where you had to wait to break even after listing. I sold at a small loss and cleared my position. In the future, I will force myself to check the market value before investing in the PRT series. I will only enter at a low price.

DeFi 2.0 ???

In October, you may have heard of this term, DeFi 2.0. However, prominent projects like OHM, SPELL, TOKE, etc., have probably already completed their value discovery. Therefore, the odds of chasing highs in these projects are not high anymore.

The story of DeFi 2.0 is essentially about micro-innovation. As long as there is micro-innovation combined with hype, it can be claimed as DeFi 2.0.

If there are early high-quality projects starting out and there is micro-innovation, then it could potentially be the next DeFi 2.0 hyped by the media. The market has no shortage of funds, as long as there is innovation. If you can enter early and strike hard, the gains could be significant. It all depends on everyone's unique strategies.

Trust B or Trust Nothing

In October, PlanB can be considered a recognized deity, with his predictions being so precise that it gives the impression that you can just trust him and lie back. Let me also tell a story here. There was someone called "Tomorrow's Fragrance" back in 2019, who had a similar status to B now because his predictions were so accurate. However, when he eventually made a wrong prediction, many followers, including Tomorrow's Fragrance himself, became objects of ridicule. I believe that B's model has reference value, but I hope everyone won't blindly trust it.