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The Block Prediction: Sei and NEAR to become "Solana killers," avatar-style NFTs will not make a comeback

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The Block Prediction: Sei and NEAR to become "Solana killers," avatar-style NFTs will not make a comeback

This article is not investment advice, the content has been summarized. For any concerns, please refer to the original article: The Block Research’s Analysts: 2024 Predictions

The Block Research Consensus Predictions

Due to analysts sharing the same predictions, the following items will be excluded from individual analyst forecasts in this article:

  • A Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved in the first quarter of 2024.

  • Coinbase's strong performance will facilitate institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies.

  • Amid a risk environment, the general expectation is for coin prices to rise in 2024.

  • Bullish narrative: Real-world assets RWA, decentralized infrastructure, and AI.

  • Upgrades like proto-danksharding/EIP-4844 will increase the adoption of Ethereum Rollup-based L2.

George Calle

  • The total crypto market value and major players like BTC, ETH, and SOL are expected to appreciate in the 2024 risk environment, outperforming stocks and tech indices.

  • Investors will shift to more potentially appreciating altcoins, and BTC's dominance will start to fluctuate.

  • Integrating AI will benefit the development of the DePIN sector.

  • COIN will continue to be the strongest crypto stock; Circle may IPO, but its performance will be relatively subdued.

Steven Zheng

  • The recovery of Solana, Sei Network, and the launch of the concurrent EVM chain Monad are expected to result in two parallel L1 blockchains in the top ten by market capitalization.

  • Coinbase's market cap is projected to reach $5 trillion.

  • An Ethereum ETF will not be approved.

  • Under the AI hype, decentralized computing power becomes a new narrative.

  • Excluding stablecoins and wrapped assets, two meme coins will enter the top ten by market cap.

  • NFTs will see a revival due to airdrops from select projects.

  • By 2024, Ordinals will account for 25% of Bitcoin miner revenue.

Eden Au

  • From a price action perspective, a Bitcoin spot ETF is a "Sell the news" event.

  • ETH is expected to outperform BTC; COIN's performance will surpass BTC.

  • Celestia TIA stands out due to extreme community hype.

  • The short-term impact of the Dencun upgrade on L2 is not favored, Arbiturm One and OP will remain mainstream L2 solutions.

  • Re-staking protocols will attract a significant amount of ETH liquidity.

  • The market is predicted to recover due to the presidential election.

  • With improved user experience and market recovery, derivative DEX platforms will be the most progressive exchanges.

  • Illuvium will spark the "GameFi Season."

3A blockchain game Illuvium to go live on Epic Games tomorrow for all players

Celestia mainnet launch | Opportunities and Challenges of Modular Blockchains in the Future

Brandon Kae

  • At least one AI project will break into the top ten by year-end.

  • ETH/BTC will rise, but there will be no golden cross.

  • Telegram trading bots will further enhance user experience and remain popular despite risks.

  • At least one NFT project will surpass BAYC in market cap and introduce a native token.

Abraham Eid

  • Security tokenization becomes a focus, with significant financing from traditional finance flowing into crypto-native infrastructure.

  • The biggest DeFi innovations will continue to revolve around RWA integration.

  • Projects focusing on decentralized computing power like hashing and bandwidth will emerge, offering more competitiveness than traditional players.

  • Projects integrating AI and cryptography will attract significant funding, but the technology is still immature.

Carlos Guzman

  • The Bitcoin spot ETF is more of a "Sell the news" event.

  • The first half of the year's economic weakness will prompt the Federal Reserve to eventually signal a rate cut, leading to a crypto rebound in the second half of the year.

  • Solana's hype will fade, with BTC leading in the first half, and BTC dominance sharply declining post-halving.

  • Competitive blockchains like Aptos, Sui, Sei, Solana, Monad, and NEAR will be in focus.

  • Privacy-supporting smart contract platforms like Aztec, Aleo, and Mina will be major topics throughout the year.

  • USDT and USDC will face increasingly fierce competition from stablecoin yields, leading to a loss of market share; TRON's Tether will also lose its lead in low-cost transfers, impacting USDT.

  • 2024 is expected to be a year of major hacking incidents, with mainstream L2 solutions experiencing significant cybersecurity events.

Jaiden Percheson

  • Another sovereign nation adopting Bitcoin as legal tender.

  • AI integration with blockchain will be one of the most hyped themes in 2024.

  • ETH/BTC will not hit new highs, but ETH will see significant gains due to upgrade expectations and ETF approvals.

Simon Cousaert

  • Zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) technology will be widely adopted by many projects, bringing more privacy to transactions.

  • Re-staking models will once again drive a DeFi boom.

Arnold Toh

  • Cosmos adoption rates will rival major L1 blockchains like Ethereum and Solana.

  • L2 solutions will continue to surge, with some starting to merge or fade away.

  • With Ethereum lacking new DeFi narratives, re-staking will become Ethereum's main narrative, with EigenLayer at the narrative's core.

  • Play-to-earn will no longer be practical, and players will shift focus to trading in-game NFTs.

How will the re-staking project EigenLayer change the Web3 infrastructure?

Marcel Bluhm

  • Solana's market cap will return to the top three, further challenging Ethereum's position.

  • By the end of 2024, market cap values will be lower than the beginning of the year.

  • The first blockchain game attracting traditional gamers will emerge.

  • The U.S. president will dismiss Gary Gensler.

Mohamed Ayadi

  • L2 blockchains will significantly increase, with only a few L2 chains achieving on-chain activity levels comparable to L1.

  • RWA and related protocols will continue to grow, but due to regulatory factors, progress will be slow.

  • Layer-0 projects like Polkadot and Cosmos will continue to develop, but they will receive less attention compared to emerging modular blockchain solutions.

  • Solana will be on par with BTC and ETH, becoming a mainstream, secure asset.

Rebecca Stevens

  • More traditional financial elements will enter the blockchain, leading to increased adoption of tokenized real-world assets.

  • L1 and L2 will begin to erode Ethereum's market dominance.

  • A large number of profile NFTs will not see a revival; game NFTs will be more popular than art NFTs.

Jae Oh Song

  • A Bitcoin ETF might be a "Sell the news" event, but the downtrend will not last long.

  • NFT games and infrastructure may be more appealing for funding due to their practicality.

  • Solana will become the mainstream L1 narrative, and competing chains will start to pursue interoperability with Solana.

  • Approval of an Ethereum spot ETF will also boost the prices of Polygon, Arbitrum, and OP.

Edvin Memet

  • Projects may transition from airdrops to liquidity mining seen in the previous DeFi season, especially when developing more accurate witch detection.

  • The market cap of meme coins will increase from the current $250 billion to over $750 billion.

  • ETH may outperform BTC, and L2 may not surpass ETH.

  • A new narrative "Solana killer" will emerge, with Sei and NEAR being major contenders.

  • New competitors will enter the "Telegram bot" space.

  • Projects like Pudgy Penguins, closer to mainstream NFTs, will thrive.

Blue-chip NFT Pudgy Penguins to launch online game Pudgy World next year

Florence Kuria

  • Meme coins like SHIB will flourish driven by community, developing their own public chains.

  • Old-school meme coins like DOGE will lose market share, with investors increasingly focusing on new emerging meme coins like BONK.

Atharv Deshpande

  • Cryptocurrencies will outperform the stock market, except for COIN.

  • ETH will not surpass BTC, and SOL will not surpass ETH.

  • The launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF will bring new capital to the crypto space.

  • By the end of 2024, meme coin market caps will exceed $500 billion. Following BONK, another unicorn meme coin will emerge.

  • L1 blockchains will maintain dominance, but the market values of L2 and meme coins will continue to increase, indicating the diversity and ongoing development of the crypto landscape.

Kevin Peng

  • Solana will continue to recover, becoming the third-largest blockchain by market cap.

  • AI will be a compelling narrative, driving numerous new protocols.

  • The crypto gaming industry will continue to mature, laying the foundation for future growth.

Lars Hoffmann

  • The focus in the first half of the year will shift to an Ethereum ETF.

  • After May, the focus will return to Bitcoin, Bitcoin meme coins, and the DeFi ecosystem.

  • The FTX lawsuit will drag on for a long time.

  • Hong Kong will become more open in crypto policies to offset financial losses in recent years.

  • New users will embrace Solana and competing chains, rather than Ethereum.

  • Modular blockchains will also fail to bring meaningful economic activity to Ethereum.

Edvinas Rupkus

  • Price trends and overall on-chain activities in 2024 will resemble those of 2021.

  • If 2021's themes were public chains and "Ethereum killers," 2024's themes will be L2 and modular blockchain solutions.

  • User interactions with major public chains will lead to significant cross-chain bridge security incidents.

  • More countries will follow El Salvador in adopting Bitcoin.

  • The most anticipated areas like dePIN and Helium applications will drive adoption.

Ian Devendorf

  • BTC dominance is expected to reach around 70% in the first half of the year.

  • Altcoins will outperform L2 solutions and mainstream blockchains like Solana, Near, Aptos, Sui, with BTC dominance plummeting in the second half of the year.

  • Lending protocols and stablecoins will benefit from high-interest rate environments, continuing to integrate real-world assets.

  • The stablecoin business model will remain popular, with more companies launching stablecoins, but challenging USDT's market share will be difficult.

Afif Bandak

  • Concurrent EVM chains will be a major narrative in 2024.

  • Liquidity provisioning and staking will remain the predominant DeFi narratives.

Shamel Tejani