Is it worth referring to J.P. Morgan's price analysis of the cryptocurrency market, where they shout "up when it's up, down when it's down"?

Despite CEO Jamie Dimon's firm stance and relentless criticism of Bitcoin since its inception, J.P. Morgan still regularly releases market analysis reports. However, their analysis of Bitcoin trends and the cryptocurrency market can be described as extremely inconsistent.

At the beginning of January, JPMorgan Chase stated that due to Bitcoin's competition with gold and fixed-income tools as a value storage asset, Bitcoin still has about 4.6 times growth potential (equivalent to Bitcoin's price rising to $146,000) in the long term.

At that time, strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said:

As the new year begins, the valuation of Bitcoin becomes more challenging. While we cannot rule out the possibility of the current speculative frenzy further expanding and pushing Bitcoin towards the consensus zone ($50,000 to $100,000), we believe that such price levels will be difficult to sustain.

JPMorgan Chase provided a long-term target price in its analysis, which seemed quite accurate after a ten-month review. However, by late January, JPMorgan Chase questioned the actual value of Bitcoin, as Bitcoin dropped from $41,986 on 1/8 to $30,011 on 1/21.

In late January, JPMorgan Chase strategists John Normand and Federico Manicardi pointed out that as institutions participate, Bitcoin is gradually becoming mainstream, significantly increasing its correlation with traditional markets. This erosion of the value of diversified assets will transform Bitcoin from a hedge asset to a leveraged asset, leading to poor performance in times of crisis.

Also in January of this year, JPMorgan Chase believed that the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF would put competitive pressure on Grayscale's GBTC, reducing premiums. The decrease in premiums would diminish the incentive for institutions to buy Bitcoin, making it less attractive to the public.

However, the outcome was that Bitcoin surged to a historic high shortly after the ETF launch.

Analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who earlier stated that Bitcoin had 4.6 times room for growth in January, once again pointed out in June that institutional investors are shifting from Bitcoin to rising gold ETFs.

Furthermore, by the end of June, he mentioned GBTC unlocking, which would bring significant selling pressure to Bitcoin, suggesting that the price needed to drop to $25,000.

However, by October, Bitcoin had risen from $36,000 to $54,000. At this point, JPMorgan Chase came up with three reasons for Bitcoin's surge.

Three reasons for Bitcoin's rise:

1. The U.S. government emphasizes no intention to follow China's crypto ban
2. El Salvador's role in Bitcoin's Lightning Network, layer-two solutions
3. Investors' concerns about escalating inflation reignite interest in Bitcoin

In a September report, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that based on the CME Bitcoin and Ether futures, institutional investors prefer ETH over BTC, and demand for Bitcoin seems relatively weak, indicating optimism for ETH's future performance.

Fast forward to November, analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou once again, in a report, stated that Bitcoin has established a unique position as digital gold; however, Ethereum faces competition from many new public chains, thus giving a fair value of $1,500 for Ether.

Regarding Bitcoin, Panigirtzoglou reiterated his $146,000 target price given in January. Many media outlets also used this as a headline. However, he stated:

Unless Bitcoin's volatility rapidly disappears, $35,000 should be considered a fair value under this volatility. Conversely, if volatility continues to decline, Bitcoin's fair value could increase to $73,000 next year, with $146,000 as the long-term target price.

JPMorgan Chase, ranked sixteenth in the world in terms of market capitalization, is one of the largest financial institutions globally, standing firm even during the 2008 financial crisis. It emerged as one of the biggest winners by acquiring Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual during the financial crisis.

However, in the field of cryptocurrencies, JPMorgan Chase's fluctuating price analyses seem to have little reference value.

• JPMorgan Chase analyst: Institutional demand for Bitcoin is weak; buying ETH is better than BTC
• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon also criticized: Doesn't care, won't buy Bitcoin, but that doesn't mean it won't increase tenfold

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