"Jack's Trading Classroom: Layout After BTCUSD Reward Halving"

Original: Jack's Trading Classroom "Layout After BTCUSD Reward Halving"

Starting with a review of our previous analysis articles, on May 8, 2020, we published a technical analysis titled "BTCUSD Trend Line Successfully Breaks, Bullish Outlook." In that article, we mentioned:

"Our first target in the future can be seen at the upper resistance level and Fibonacci sequence target price of 10438.5. With the reward halving effect mentioned yesterday, we should continue to operate with a bullish mindset, avoiding speculative topping strategies until a reversal pattern forms at the key top long-term pressure level."

In the previous analysis article, we indicated that the downtrend resistance trend line had been broken based on the daily cycle chart. During a live broadcast on the evening of May 8, 2020, a potential double top pattern was mentioned. It was noted during the live analysis that reaching the Fibonacci target price with a double top formation would be challenging, with the price still above the daily cycle support level of 9419.0.

At that time, it was judged that the price would likely stop falling at around 9419.0 and rebound. However, BTCUSD experienced a significant decline on May 10, 2020, breaking the support level of 9419.0 and falling to 8088.0, forming a low point at the previously mentioned support level of 8089.0 before rebounding.

Today, we switch the chart to the four-hour candlestick chart of BTCUSD. In the chart, we can see that the moving averages in the four-hour candlestick chart have crossed downward and formed a bearish arrangement. Therefore, it is judged that the bearish trend is still stronger in the four-hour timeframe. However, BTCUSD has formed an upward support trend line at the low point, and the price has also retraced to the EMA exponential moving average support.

If the key daily support is broken, the bottom upward support trend line will also inevitably be broken. A reasonable short-selling point can be waiting for BTCUSD to break the key daily support of 8089.0 before entering with a breakthrough short position. Currently, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase, and it is recommended for operators who prefer long positions to patiently wait for the formation of a bottom pattern or trend before entering, which would be more appropriate.

Upper resistance levels
R1 9419.0
R2 10315.0
R3 11380.0
R4 11730.0

Lower support levels
S1 8089.0
This price is the same as the daily support/resistance level of 9419.0 mentioned in the analysis article from October last year. Daily support/resistance levels have a longer cycle, and breaking through them tends to have stronger upward/downward momentum.
S2 7467.0
S3 7190.0
S4 6436.0
S5 5227.5
S6 3832.5

In recent days, the digital currency market has been volatile. It is recommended that operators strictly implement risk control measures and avoid high leverage and high contract volume operations to prevent additional losses caused by volatile market conditions. The article reflects personal opinions, and readers are advised to refer cautiously. Trading virtual currencies may pose risks to your capital.

WeChat Official Account: Jack's Trading Classroom
Personal Website: jackbtc.io

Further Reading

• "Jack's Trading Classroom" BTCUSD Bitcoin Long and Short Boundary
• "Jack's Trading Classroom" BTCUSD Trend Line Breaks, Bullish Outlook

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