London hard fork approaching, how many Hodlers are left as Ethereum genesis addresses are consolidated?

We have conducted some simple analysis on the characteristics and asset holdings of thousands of genesis addresses, and have discovered some interesting conclusions.

(This article is authorized for reprint from ChainNews, with the original title "What are the Ethereum Genesis Addresses Doing Six Years After the London Hard Fork?" Original article here)

On the night of July 30, 2015, Beijing time, Ethereum's 0th block was officially mined, containing 8893 genesis transactions, distributing over 72 million ETH to 8893 addresses as the initial distribution in the Ethereum network.

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As the Ethereum network, just celebrating its "sixth birthday," gears up for the London hard fork upgrade this week, the EIP-1559 in this upgrade marks the first economic model adjustment since Ethereum's inception. The significance of this proposal is self-evident, yet it has also sparked significant controversy among some miners and the community. As of the time of writing, 35% of nodes have not yet upgraded to support the London hard fork. Nevertheless, all of this will be settled in two days.

At this moment of considerable significance for Ethereum, we have conducted some simple analysis on the characteristics and asset holdings of those thousands of genesis addresses and have also discovered some interesting conclusions.

Genesis Addresses Holding ETH Decreased by 96%, But USD Value Grew Nearly 40 Times

There are two straightforward dimensions to consider the current ETH holdings of these 8,893 addresses: the total amount of ETH held by these addresses and the distribution of ETH quantities held.

According to ChainNews statistics, the total amount of ETH currently held by these 8,893 addresses is approximately 3.09 million ETH, which is nearly 96% less compared to 72 million ETH six years ago.

However, in terms of USD value, the asset prices of these addresses have significantly increased. Referring to the opening price of ETH on August 7, 2015, at $2.83 according to CoinMarketCap, the total value of 72 million ETH six years ago was $200 million; but based on the current price of $2,500 per ETH, the total value of 3.09 million ETH exceeds $7.7 billion, nearly 40 times higher than six years ago. Moreover, when Ethereum hit a historical high of $4,300 not long ago, the increase was even more substantial.

Addresses Holding Less Than 0.01 ETH Account for 60%

Another dimension is the distribution of ETH quantities held, especially addresses with balances less than 0.01 ETH, which are likely abandoned addresses.

After sorting, it was found that currently, 5,317 Genesis addresses have balances less than 0.01, accounting for approximately 60% of all Genesis addresses. If the standard is expanded to addresses with less than 1 ETH, it accounts for about 82% of all Genesis addresses (7,248 addresses).

Although these addresses have transferred the vast majority of Ethereum out, it does not necessarily mean that the users behind these addresses have sold their Ethereum, as it is also possible that they have only transferred it to other addresses or are organizing their addresses. However, these scenarios cannot be accurately determined on the chain.

Hodler Ratio: Nearly 8% of Addresses Have Almost Unchanged ETH Balances, Holding ETH Worth $5 Billion

Among these Genesis users, 8% of addresses have hardly moved their ETH over the past six years, especially considering that the price of Ethereum has surged from less than $1 to over $4,000 during this time, resulting in at least a thousandfold increase in their unrealized gains.

Specifically, we obtained the balances of these addresses at Genesis and their current balances. If the difference is between 0.01 ETH and -0.01 ETH, it meets the criteria because many of these addresses have received various airdrops or created smart contracts, which may have increased or decreased their ETH holdings.

The total number of addresses meeting this criterion is 723, and what's more alarming is that these addresses hold over 2 million ETH, accounting for 65% of the total ETH holdings of the 8,893 addresses (3.09 million ETH). The current value of these 2 million ETH is approximately $5 billion.

Address with Most Reduction: Ethereum Foundation

Among these 8,893 addresses, there is one address whose current balance has decreased by over 11.9 million ETH compared to Genesis, meaning that almost all of the ETH held by that address during Genesis has been transferred out, leaving only a small amount (less than 10 ETH).

This address (0x5abfec2…56f9) received 11.9 million ETH during Genesis (also the address with the largest balance at Genesis). A week later, this address created a smart contract address (0xde0B295…7BAe) to manage the 11.9 million ETH. Currently, this address is labeled as "Ethereum Foundation" and "EthDev" (Ethereum developers) on Etherscan, with a balance of nearly 400,000 ETH. This represents a 97% decrease in ETH from Genesis, although, similar to the previous cases, the USD value has actually increased from $33.68 million at Genesis (calculated at $2.83 per ETH) to $1 billion today (calculated at $2,500 per ETH).

Address with Most Increase in Holdings: Unknown, But Associated with Ethereum Foundation

Additionally, among the 8,893 addresses, there are over 40 addresses whose balances have increased compared to Genesis, with one address seeing an increase of over 30,000 ETH (currently valued at $75 million).

This address (0xddbd2b9…121a) received 10,000 ETH during Genesis. Shortly after, this unknown user transferred all the ETH to Kraken, possibly for selling or providing liquidity. Later, the address received a transfer of over 80,000 ETH, which was subsequently transferred out in batches (some flowing to exchanges), leaving about 40,000 ETH. The balance of this address has remained unchanged since October 2015.

The 80,000 ETH received by this address ultimately came from the aforementioned EthDev address. Therefore, a reasonable speculation is that this user (institution) not only participated in Genesis but also has a deeper connection with the Ethereum Foundation, potentially being a developer, an internal address of the Ethereum Foundation, an early investment institution, etc.

There is very little information available about this address on the web. However, in the developer documentation of Etherscan, this address is used as a demonstration, which may not be a coincidence.