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LUNA airdrop in progress! How much should USTC and LUNC lottery be bought below to make a profit?

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LUNA airdrop in progress! How much should USTC and LUNC lottery be bought below to make a profit?

The highly anticipated LUNA token airdrop successfully took place as scheduled last Saturday, garnering significant market attention. Various exchanges have rushed to list the token, causing substantial price volatility. With the market now temporarily establishing a new price for the LUNA token, how much value can users who received the airdrop expect to reclaim?

LUNA Token Airdrop

Users eligible for the airdrop can now simply open Terra Station or its extension wallet to see the tokens received from the airdrop and the amount locked. The data displayed on the Terra Station homepage is currently for LUNA 2.0, not the old network. Additionally, upon opening the extension wallet, the default network displayed is Terra 2.0. To view assets and data from the original network, users must switch to Classic.

Users who receive the LUNA airdrop can choose to stake it, with the current staking APY at around 13% and a staking ratio of approximately 54%.

The total supply of LUNA tokens is 1 billion, with approximately 21 million tokens distributed in this airdrop, accounting for 2% of the total supply. The remaining tokens will be airdropped in stages according to unlocking rules.

LUNA Listing on Centralized Exchanges

Following the distribution of the LUNA airdrop, several centralized exchanges have begun listing related trading pairs. Bybit was the first to list, followed by Kucoin. According to Coinmarketcap data, over 10 exchanges have now listed LUNA, all with spot trading pairs and no futures trading pairs. The price is currently around $5.8, having surged to $30 at Bybit's opening.

Value from Airdrops

In conjunction with the LUNA token airdrop, many centralized exchanges are also planning to distribute LUNA tokens to their users in the coming days. The world's largest exchange, Binance, has released an airdrop announcement for this purpose.

Based on this announcement, investors affected by the recent market crash can calculate the compensation they will receive. The discussion below is divided into pre-attack and post-attack scenarios.

Pre-attack:

The snapshot before the attack was taken at 11 pm Taiwan time on 5/7, with LUNC priced at around $73.5 and aUST at $1. Based on the current LUNA price of around $5.8, if holders did not sell any tokens during the attack, the $73.5 LUNC would only be worth $6 in LUNA, resulting in a loss of about 91.8%. Similarly, the $1 aUST would only convert to $0.1 in LUNA, representing a loss of about 90%.

Post-attack:

The snapshot after the attack was taken at 12:38 am Taiwan time on 5/27. The token prices at that time are not considered, as most users who bought LUNC and USTC after the crash did so speculatively. The calculation is based on the buying price below which profit could be made.

With the exchange rate, having 1 USTC can exchange for $0.136 worth of LUNA. Therefore, buying USTC below this price allows for profit. Similarly, having 1 LUNC can exchange for $0.000089 worth of LUNA, offering profit when bought below this price.

However, airdropped tokens have a locking period, with an initial maximum airdrop ratio of 30%. Additionally, profit potential decreases as the LUNA price continues to decline.