Matrixport: MicroStrategy stock price indicates Bitcoin should be at 38K, SEC false news is a "sell the news" event.

Following Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen's consecutive bearish Bitcoin analysis reports, Matrixport also utilized MicroStrategy's stock price for analysis on its official website, suggesting a fair value for Bitcoin at 38K, while also commenting on this morning's SEC false news as a "sell the news" event.

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MicroStrategy Stock Price Reaction Suggests Bitcoin Should Be Priced at 38K

The report indicates that MicroStrategy has become an unofficial Bitcoin spot ETF. Since the end of December, its stock price has dropped by 14%, while Bitcoin has risen by 8% during the same period. Estimating from the stock price charts of both, Bitcoin should be priced at 38,000.

During this period, the broader cryptocurrency stock sector has also been sold off and has not followed the rise in Bitcoin prices. Coinbase fell by 18%, and Marathon fell by 8%.

SEC Fake News Triggers "Sell the News" Event

The report also comments on the SEC fake news this morning as a "sell the news" event. As Bitcoin only rose by 1,000 points this time, profit-taking emerged, leading to even more declines.

Maxtrixport believes that cryptocurrency investors are overly optimistic, and the inflow of TradeFi may disappoint investors. With intense ETF fee competition marking a shrinking market share, participants can only stand out by lowering costs, making trading Bitcoin through ETFs cheaper than trading directly on cryptocurrency exchanges.

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ETH Performance Expected to Outperform BTC

The report also suggests that fifteen minutes after receiving a false approval notice, the market shifted from Bitcoin to Ether. This may be a short covering of Ethereum futures. In Matrixport's weekly report, it has been pointed out that if a Bitcoin ETF is approved, the focus may shift to Ethereum as the final deadline for Ethereum ETF approval will become the focus of investors, with the current deadline set for May 2024. Ethereum's current performance may outshine Bitcoin.

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