Once in Four Years! Polymarket Prediction Market Surpasses $1 Billion in Trading Volume Amid U.S. Election Frenzy

The well-known blockchain prediction platform Polymarket recently reached a significant milestone, with a total trading volume surpassing $1 billion. The surge in trading activity was mainly driven by the emotions surrounding the quadrennial U.S. presidential election.

US Election Sets Record for Polymarket

Unprecedented Betting Volume in July

In July alone, Polymarket saw more than a third of its total historical volume, with speculators keen on betting on the US presidential election. According to Dune Analytics, as of July 30, the platform had a staggering $351 million in bets. This number represents a significant increase from $111 million in June and $63 million in May.

On-Chain Applications Benefit from Election Fever

The record-breaking trading volume is primarily driven by fervent speculation on the US presidential election. Currently, over $433 million has been wagered on which candidate will emerge victorious on November 4. Trump maintains a 60% lead in odds, while the Democratic candidate, Vice President Harris, surged from a 1% chance to 38% after President Biden suddenly withdrew from the race.

Polymarket Allows Betting on Anything

Beyond Political Betting Topics

While Polymarket is primarily known for its political event speculation, the platform also offers a variety of prediction markets, including cryptocurrencies, sports, business, and the 2024 Olympics, catering to speculators with diverse interests.

Polymarket Secures Major Funding This Year

In addition to its growing user base and betting volume, Polymarket has received financial backing. On May 14, the platform completed a $70 million Series B funding round, led by prominent Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel's Founder Fund, with Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin also participating. Furthermore, on July 24, Polymarket partnered with payment platform MoonPay, enabling credit card and debit card payments, simplifying the onboarding process for non-crypto users.

Election Statistics Expert Joins Polymarket

To further capitalize on financial speculation surrounding US politics, Polymarket hired election analyst and statistician Nate Silver as a consultant on July 16. This move aims to enhance the platform's credibility and attract more users interested in political gambling.

Limitations and Controversies of Polymarket

Despite its popularity and widespread use in US events, Polymarket is banned for use by US users, posing a significant challenge that may restrict the platform's growth in its primary market.

Also a Taboo Platform in Taiwan

At the end of 2023, on the eve of the Taiwan presidential election, more than 70 police officers conducted raids nationwide, ultimately arresting 17 suspects involved, with a total amount of 5502 USDC. How was Polymarket caught up in the election gambling storm? According to Article 88-1 of the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Law, gambling in public places or places accessible to the public with election results as the subject carries a penalty of up to six months imprisonment or a fine, and Taiwan's government enforces this law. Polymarket is also restricted in the Taiwan domain, with some users receiving a warning screen from the Criminal Investigation Bureau upon entry.

While Polymarket can be used to predict a variety of events, involving national politics triggers restrictions in multiple jurisdictions governed by the rule of law.

Playing Polymarket to bet on Ko Wen-je's victory, a Hsinchu engineer lost money and was sentenced to 20 days in detention and 2 years of probation.