The Road to Mainstream: Understanding the Design Principles of Bitcoin ETFs and GBTC, Regulatory Challenges

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The Road to Mainstream: Understanding the Design Principles of Bitcoin ETFs and GBTC, Regulatory Challenges

Understanding the principles of GBTC, the differences with Bitcoin ETF, and the design principles and challenges faced by Bitcoin ETF.

(This article is authorized to be reprinted from ChainNews, titled "The Inevitable Road to Mainstream Cryptocurrency: In-depth Understanding of Bitcoin ETF Design Schemes and Regulatory Challenges," original article here)

Bitcoin ETF has been a subject of great interest as a compliant Bitcoin financial product accessible to the general investors. Especially during the fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market in recent times, the shortcomings displayed by other types of compliant Bitcoin financial products have highlighted the advantages of Bitcoin ETF.

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However, after Canada approved multiple Bitcoin ETFs this year (the first being Purpose Bitcoin ETF, listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, the U.S. SEC recently postponed the decision on several Bitcoin ETF applications, including WisdomTree until July 14, Kryptoin until July 27, Valkyrie until August 10, and VanEck seeking public feedback.

Through Bitcoin ETFs, general investors can participate (indirectly) in Bitcoin investments on mainstream stock exchanges without managing private keys, with low fees, high transparency, and without worrying about financial regulatory, tax compliance, and other issues. Bitcoin ETFs are a significant milestone towards mass investment. It is due to this reason that the U.S. SEC has taken a more cautious approach towards Bitcoin ETFs - as seen in the relevant statements by the U.S. SEC.

Some concerns from the U.S. SEC are very helpful in understanding the next steps in the development of the cryptocurrency market.

This article is divided into three parts:

  • The first part is a general introduction to ETFs as a reference for understanding Bitcoin ETFs;
  • The second part discusses the two main design schemes and related challenges of Bitcoin ETFs;
  • The third part summarizes several obstacles faced by the U.S. SEC in approving Bitcoin ETFs.

What is an ETF?

ETF, as an index investment tool, is the most successful financial innovation in the global financial market after the international financial crisis. By the end of 2020, there were 7,527 ETFs listed for trading globally, with total assets exceeding $7.9 trillion, of which stock ETFs accounted for nearly 3/4, bond ETFs accounted for 19%, and commodity ETFs accounted for 3.4%.

The United States is not only the birthplace of ETFs, but also the largest ETF market globally. In fact, the U.S. market leads by a wide margin in terms of product quantity and asset size. By the end of 2020, the U.S. ETF market's asset size was $5.49 trillion, accounting for 69.5% of the global market share.

The establishment of ETFs in the U.S. is based on the "Investment Company Act of 1940," but the operational mechanism of ETFs conflicts with the Act in many ways, such as in-kind creation and redemption, allowing only Authorized Participants (APs) to participate in creation and redemption, and limiting regular investors to trade. Therefore, each ETF issuance requires a separate exemption application to the U.S. SEC.

In September 2019, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a new rule for ETFs (Rule 6c-11), which is the first systematic regulation specifically for ETFs since their inception. After the rule took effect in November 2019 (with a one-year transition period), regular ETFs can be established with a simple filing to the SEC without the need for individual exemption applications, significantly streamlining the ETF creation process.

ETFs have primary and secondary markets. In the primary market, Authorized Participants (APs) participate in the creation and redemption of ETF shares. Investors buy and sell ETF shares on stock exchanges, constituting the secondary market for ETFs. The following introduces Figure 1.

Primary and Secondary Markets of ETFs

APs can be market makers, professional institutions, or other large financial institutions designated by the ETF issuer, and they can change the supply of ETF shares in the market through in-kind creation and redemption.

When an ETF issuer wants to expand the product size, they will ask APs to buy the constituent securities of the ETF in the market according to the weight allocation and deliver these securities to the ETF issuer. In exchange, the ETF issuer gives the AP an equivalent value of ETF shares based on the ETF net asset value (NAV). The AP can then resell the ETF shares for profit. This process can also be reversed: the AP redeems a basket of constituent securities to the ETF issuer, removing ETF shares from the market.

The ability of APs to create and redeem ETF shares, along with arbitrage mechanisms, helps keep the ETF market price close to the net asset value (NAV). In times of ETF premium, APs buy underlying securities in the market to create ETF shares with the issuer. Conversely, in times of ETF discount, APs redeem shares from the issuer and sell the acquired underlying securities in the market.

In general, the more APs there are, the more likely the competition between them will help the ETF market price approach fair value. This is one of the key differences between ETFs and closed-end funds. For closed-end funds, no one can create or redeem shares. Due to the lack of arbitrage mechanisms to regulate supply and demand, closed-end funds often trade at a high premium or discount.

In the U.S., individual investors can buy and sell ETFs directly from brokerage accounts (such as Charles Schwab and Merrill Lynch). ETF share transfers are similar to stocks, with the reference value updated every 15 seconds, daily publication of ETF share values, allowing trading at any time the market is open, supporting multiple daily buys and sells, short selling, and buying on margin on the same day. In contrast, regular mutual funds (ETFs can be considered a type of special mutual fund) can only be traded once a day (after the market closes).

In summary, ETFs in general can be understood from the following points (which are also key to understanding Bitcoin ETFs):

  • Asset portfolio characteristics: benchmark, investment strategy;
  • Primary market features: AP, share creation and redemption mechanism, arbitrage mechanism;
  • Secondary market features: investor groups, trading venues, trading methods, price characteristics.

Design and Challenges of Bitcoin ETF

Contrast with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust

To understand the significance of a Bitcoin ETF, it is best to compare it with the largest Bitcoin financial product globally - the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

The key features of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust are as follows:

  • Asset portfolio characteristics: directly holding Bitcoin, purchasing Bitcoin through Genesis, which holds a BitLicense, and custody by Coinbase Custody.
  • Primary market features: Trust shares are GBTC, with approximately 1,000 shares of GBTC per Bitcoin; accredited investors can purchase GBTC with Bitcoin or cash but cannot redeem GBTC.
  • Secondary market features: GBTC has a 6-month lock-up period, trades on the OTCQX market, open to retail investors; GBTC previously traded at a premium to Bitcoin but is currently at a discount.

Although the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has been very successful, its shortcomings are also evident:

  • Firstly, GBTC cannot be redeemed, hindering arbitrage mechanisms, leading to a long-term deviation of GBTC prices from Bitcoin, lacking inherent convergence forces, making it difficult for investors to obtain exposure to Bitcoin.
  • Secondly, GBTC can only be traded on the OTCQX market, limiting liquidity.

Therefore, a Bitcoin ETF has two key objectives: to improve arbitrage mechanisms for better tracking of Bitcoin prices and to expand the secondary market investor base, especially by listing on mainstream stock exchanges.

Bitcoin ETF based on Bitcoin Spot

The following introduces the Bitcoin ETF proposal submitted by VanEck to the U.S. SEC in March 2021, which the SEC has delayed the decision on and sought public opinion.

Further reading:

Asset portfolio characteristics:

Legally, the Bitcoin ETF is actually a trust share based on commodities (Bitcoin falls under the category of commodities in the U.S.), holding Bitcoin directly and being custodied by a third-party custodian. The Bitcoin ETF generally does not hold cash or cash equivalents, with the investment benchmark being the MVIS® CryptoCompare Bitcoin Benchmark Index minus the trust operating fee. This Bitcoin benchmark index aggregates Bitcoin prices from Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, iBit, and Kraken.

Primary market features:

The Bitcoin ETF will introduce Authorized Participants (APs). APs will create and redeem trust shares by trading Bitcoin with the Bitcoin ETF issuer. Clearly, the creation and redemption of trust shares involve the movement of Bitcoin between APs and the ETF issuer's wallets, which occurs on the Bitcoin blockchain. This establishes an arbitrage mechanism between trust shares and Bitcoin spot.

Secondary market features:

The trust shares are planned to be listed on the Cboe BZX exchange (formerly BATS, a highly traded non-traditional exchange). During trading hours, the NAV of the trust shares will be updated every 15 seconds.

Compared to the general case of ETFs, a Bitcoin ETF based on Bitcoin spot, apart from the custody and wallet operations related to Bitcoin, the rest of the mechanism design is very similar to mainstream ETFs, especially with a robust arbitrage mechanism.

Bitcoin ETF based on Bitcoin Futures

The following introduces the Bitcoin ETF proposal submitted by VanEck to the U.S. SEC in June 2021 (submitted after the previous proposal sought public opinion).

Further reading:

  • 《UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION》

This ETF does not directly invest in Bitcoin or other digital assets but invests in Bitcoin futures and other collective investment tools and exchange-traded products (ETPs) providing Bitcoin risk exposure. The Bitcoin futures invested by the ETF are of the cash-settled type.

The ETF's goal is to make the total Bitcoin risk exposure of the ETF approximately equal to the ETF's NAV. However, at times, the ETF's total Bitcoin risk exposure may exceed the NAV due to leverage from embedded in futures contracts, reverse repo agreements, bank borrowings, etc.

In addition to Bitcoin futures contracts, collective investment tools, and exchange-traded products, the other assets of the ETF are invested in U.S. government bonds, money market funds, cash equivalents, U.S. agency-issued or guaranteed MBS, municipal bonds, and TIPS.

In summary, this ETF proposal does not involve custody and wallet operations related to Bitcoin, and it is essentially more akin to a commodity mutual fund: obtaining risk exposure through futures, primarily investing in low-risk, highly liquid financial products, while also serving as futures margin. This will mainly result in the following risks:

  • Deviation of Bitcoin futures from spot prices (normal before futures expiration). After Bitcoin futures expire, rollover is required, posing additional risks.
  • Investing in low-risk, highly liquid financial products still entails market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, etc.
  • Risk of poorly controlled leverage ratios.
  • Possibility of Bitcoin futures trading suspension in volatile cryptocurrency markets, based on Bitcoin futures

Bitcoin ETFs find it more difficult to track Bitcoin price trends. This situation occurred with the Canadian Horizons Bitcoin ETF on May 21, 2021.

Overall, the ETF's NAV changes may significantly deviate from Bitcoin price trends, and there is no arbitrage mechanism to converge the two.

Obstacles to U.S. SEC Approval of Bitcoin ETF

By reviewing the U.S. SEC statements on May 11, 2021, and the explanation seeking public opinion on the VanEck Bitcoin ETF on June 16, 2021, it is evident that two types of Bitcoin ETF proposals face obstacles in approval.

Further reading:

Bitcoin ETF based on Bitcoin Spot

  • Liquidity, transparency, and potential manipulation in the Bitcoin spot market (e.g., impacts from Elon Musk's tweets).
  • Potential for manipulation of ETF shares and exchange preventive measures.
  • Compliance of ETF share listing with the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
  • Possibility of manipulating ETF shares through the Bitcoin futures market.

Bitcoin ETF based on Bitcoin Futures

  • Liquidity and depth of the Bitcoin futures market and suitability for mutual fund investment.
  • Ability of mutual funds to close out Bitcoin futures positions when facing investor redemptions, and the risk management and leverage management capabilities of mutual fund derivatives.
  • Impact of mutual funds participating in the Bitcoin futures market on futures pricing, and the impact of Bitcoin spot market volatility on futures pricing.
  • Liquidity management capabilities of mutual funds in normal and stressed market scenarios to meet open-end fund requirements (closed-end funds have lower liquidity management requirements), and issues such as concentration and large positions.
  • Possibility of fraud or manipulation in the Bitcoin spot market and its impact on the Bitcoin futures market.

Based on the analysis of mutual funds investing in Bitcoin futures, the U.S. SEC will assess whether the Bitcoin futures market can support an ETF, as ETFs "face greater challenges in liquidity management."

In conclusion, with time and market development, some obstacles will likely diminish. However, the fundamental inclination of the current U.S. Democratic policies is towards stronger regulations, adding political uncertainty to the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.