Arthur Hayes: Traditional financial ETFs are too successful, will completely destroy Bitcoin

BitMex founder Arthur Hayes released another lengthy article "Expression" over the weekend, in which he not only maintained his usual disdain for the US printing money and recent political manipulation of finance due to the upcoming election, but also mentioned the hottest topic recently - Bitcoin spot ETF. How does this Key Opinion Leader (KOL) with a traditional financial background who has been involved in the crypto space for a long time view the participation of traditional financial institutions in the game?

Arthur Hayes' Recent Accurate Predictions on Cryptocurrency Trends

In June, the patient Arthur Hayes accurately predicted that the Bitcoin market would start to rise in the fall, and has successfully captured the current Bitcoin uptrend that started from 25K in early September.

He also showed confidence in AI concept coin FIL and the meme coin SOL. After SOL surged by double, Arthur Hayes took profits and switched to buying ETH.

Patience is a virtue, as Arthur Hayes predicted that the Bitcoin market would kick off in the fall, with a chance to reach $70,000 next year.

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Arthur Hayes' View on Bitcoin Spot ETF

In his text, Hayes mentioned that all other currency assets used by human civilization have physical existence due to natural laws. Gold, as a substance being gold, is not because we say it is gold, but because of the arrangement of atoms. The interactions between these atoms are governed by universal laws. Fiat currency, though like some gibberish printed on a piece of paper, is still a physical material. Whether you believe a piece of paper has monetary value or not, it is still paper. If you dig a hole, deposit gold and a large amount of paper, and come back 100 years later, the gold and paper would still exist.

But Bitcoin is entirely different. Bitcoin is the first currency asset in human history that "only exists when it moves." Around 2140 when Bitcoin block rewards drop to zero, miners will only be able to validate transactions by collecting transaction fees. This means that miners can only earn Bitcoin income through the use of the network. Essentially, if Bitcoin moves, it has value. But if there are no longer Bitcoin transactions between two entities, miners will not be able to afford the energy required to secure the network. As a result, they would turn off their machines. Without miners, the network will die, and Bitcoin will disappear.

Imagine a future where the largest asset management companies in the West and China hold all circulating Bitcoin. This situation will naturally occur when people blur financial assets with value storage. Due to confusion and laziness, people buy Bitcoin ETFs instead of purchasing and holding Bitcoin in self-custody wallets. A few companies hold all Bitcoin, and since Bitcoin's blockchain has no practical use, Bitcoin will no longer move. The ultimate result would be miners shutting down their machines because they cannot afford the energy costs needed to run the machines. In other words:

If traditional financial asset management companies managing ETFs are too successful, they will completely destroy Bitcoin.

Arthur Hayes' Operating Recommendations

Of course, this is the most extreme scenario. In anticipation of governments printing a large amount of money and the significant devaluation of the dollar, Arthur Hayes still advises everyone to:

• Trade financial assets to earn more fiat currency: such as buying and selling ETFs
• Use financial systems outside of national control: such as purchasing Bitcoin and withdrawing it from centralized exchanges to your own self-custody wallet

The best time to buy Bitcoin and start your cryptocurrency journey was yesterday, the next best time is now.