Ethereum 2.0 Delayed Again: Development Team Aims to Release Next Year on Bitcoin's Birthday, Vitalik Pushes for Launch This Year

The Ethereum Foundation recently held its fourth AMA on the mainstream forum Reddit in the United States, where the most anticipated topic undoubtedly is when Ethereum 2.0 will arrive. However, there is a consensus discrepancy among the main participants regarding the exact release date, and founder Vitalik Buterin disagrees with the notion that ETH 2.0 can be launched this year.

Review of the Third Ethereum 2.0 AMA

This AMA featured Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum 2.0 researchers Danny Ryan, and Justin Drake, similar to the AMA held in February this year.

Looking back at the third Ethereum 2.0 AMA held in February, Ethereum 2.0 researcher Danny Ryan confidently stated: "I don't see any reason why Ethereum 2.0 can't happen in 2020." Vitalik Buterin also mentioned:

In reality, when can Phase 0 be achieved? From the fourth quarter of 2019, then the first quarter of 2020, moving to the present first quarter, based on my understanding, the estimated time of arrival (ETA) we are discussing would be July 2020.

ETH 2.0 May Be Delayed Again to 2021

Returning to the current AMA, the community first brought up that although the target is getting closer, the initial goal of launching Phase 0 in July is becoming less likely. When can Phase 0 be formally deployed instead of repeatedly setting release dates? Ethereum 2.0 researcher Justin Drake responded:

After the testnet goes live, developers will need at least two to three months for debugging. With Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays approaching, there may not be enough time for full testing. I believe, with four months remaining, there is a chance it could be achieved by mid-November, but practically speaking, I lean more towards January 3, 2021, coinciding with the 12th anniversary of Bitcoin's creation.

Buterin disagreed, stating that there are no critical applications transitioning to ETH 2.0, and most applications will still use ETH 1.0, providing developers ample time for debugging. Hence, the risk of launching this year is not high, and it should be able to launch in November. He remarked:

I personally cannot agree with delaying the launch of Phase 0 to January next year. I think, regardless of the current level of readiness, it must be released before this time: D.

Buterin pointed out that it took four months for ETH 1.0 to transition from the testnet to launch (launched from March to May 2015), and the launch of Altona (a multi-client testnet) sets a four-month countdown for ETH 2.0 (Altona went live on June 29).

"I am more inclined to the argument that the on-chain mechanism of Phase 0 is simpler, and it does not need to rely on ETH 2.0 until Phase 1, so the actual risk is lower (you could also say the overall ecosystem is stronger). Overall, I don't think it's necessary to spend more time deploying Phase 0." Buterin said.

Historically, the Ethereum development timeline has always deviated from the actual results, as upgrades involve many protocols running on Ethereum, leaving developers with little room for trial and error. Interestingly, although the majority of the community members in the AMA agreed with Buterin's views, the new generation prediction market Omen presents a fifty-fifty situation in predicting the release date of ETH 2.0.