Summary of Trading Experience in 2021 | Ten Pieces of Advice from a Cryptocurrency Analyst

Cryptocurrency analyst and trader CryptoCred released his trading reflections for 2021 on 12/24. The following is a summary:

Two important lessons from 2021

1. If a project is strong, buy into it and then look for the next target, because assuming you missed the initial skyrocketing project, usually the returns of other targets are not as good as the top projects.

2. Experimenting with new things always pays off, airdrops, new public chains, NFTs, etc., try new technologies.

3. As cryptocurrency acceptance increases and everyone is discussing crypto, absolute top signals and contrarian indicators are becoming less common. In the past, whenever a celebrity discussed cryptocurrency, the consequences were extremely terrifying, for example, Katy Perry's cryptocurrency nails in 2018, and Elon Musk's appearance on SNL last Saturday in 2021 led to a avalanche-like plunge in Dogecoin. Adjustments should be made accordingly.

4. There is no need to chase the highest point to sell. The idea behind this is that you have already made a lot of money during the rise, so it doesn't matter when the collapse happens. The decline will always come, but sellers who actively sell during the rise always win over sellers who are forced to sell during the decline.

5. If you are looking for exit signals, I prefer to add a few long-term moving averages to the chart, such as Hull MA, MA Ribbon, 21 W, 50 W, etc., and then see how far BTC is from these averages, observe the market's upward trend and ask yourself: "Am I willing to give back these profits?"

6. When the only "new project" in the market forks or duplicates, you are approaching the market peak. For example, in the DeFi, various meme coins, OHM, and other fields, similar to junk coins' irrational surges, this is a situation of anti-innovation, historically a good exit signal.

7. If you are a trader, pay attention to projects with high trading volume. Assuming this happens to be an excellent project, which is usually the case, your trading life will be much easier. High trading volume means clearer technical analysis can be conducted. Ideally, there will be high trading volume for more than a week and clear chip turnovers, such as SOL/LUNA/AVAX, rather than one-time surges and crashes.

8. In an upward trend, the best buying opportunity is either when the price has risen high or when there is a comprehensive market pullback dominated by related sectors and mainstream coins. Those oversold, unclear trend, and projects that have been flat all along = high opportunity cost.

9. Maintain critical thinking about everything. DeFi has turned from the market darling into something no one cares about. During the NFT craze, it was impossible to find a chart worth referencing for weeks, and now NFTs are like discarded adult films. When the hype fades, don't get stuck.

10. Surviving in the market is the key to victory. There are countless ways to succeed, but the premise of all methods is that you won't lose everything before or after success.

2022 Trends

CryptoCred stated that he has spoken a lot of nonsense, but he believes that 2022 will be another year for BTC and ETH to take off.

When asked about other opportunities for experiments mentioned in the second point, he gave several directions: underlying chains, layer-two solutions, DAOs, gaming, and non-avatar NFTs.