Bitwise anticipates the next halving market, with Bitcoin price reaching $250,000

Bitcoin has just completed its fourth halving. Bitwise Investments CIO Matt Hougan believes that this process has seen many developments, including the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, traditional financial companies like BlackRock entering the crypto market, stablecoins becoming a $150 billion market, and more. Hougan anticipates the next halving to occur in April 2028 and has made five predictions:

Bitcoin Volatility to Drop by 50%

The volatility of Bitcoin has been decreasing over the years, but I believe the rate of decrease will accelerate in the future. The main reason is ETFs.

ETFs will bring new types of investors into the Bitcoin market—financial advisors, family offices, institutions, and more. Institutional investors are more likely than retail investors to rebalance their portfolios by selling high and buying low, and make steady investments in the market on a monthly or quarterly basis, which can reduce volatility.

5% Bitcoin Allocation Becoming Common

We will see Bitcoin's share in a "typical" investment portfolio rise to 5% or more.

We have already seen target-date funds increasing their Bitcoin allocations in certain markets like Canada, with Fidelity Canada's All-in-One Growth ETF currently allocating 4.1% to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin ETFs to Amass Over $200 Billion

In the U.S., Bitcoin ETFs have attracted around $12.5 billion in net flows since their launch three months ago, making them the fastest-growing new ETF category in history.

I believe they are just getting started. One reason is that ETFs have not yet been widely promoted by national banks like JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America. Meanwhile, institutions are still beginning their due diligence. Both of these areas could represent significant long-term sources of demand.

The history of ETFs also supports the view that the liquidity is just beginning. Net inflows into gold ETFs have risen year over year for seven consecutive years since the first gold ETF was launched in the U.S. in 2004.

Central Banks to Begin Allocating Bitcoin

Central banks are significant investors in gold, holding about 20% of the gold that has been mined. They have also been big buyers recently, accumulating over 2,000 tons of gold in the past two years, equivalent to over $100 billion in purchases.

I believe they will start buying Bitcoin before the next halving. Like gold, Bitcoin is a non-debt currency—an asset that cannot be expanded through borrowing. It also cannot be seized by foreign governments like sovereign bonds. From a payment and settlement perspective, Bitcoin is also more functional than gold. These features are becoming increasingly attractive in today's increasingly volatile world.

Bitcoin Price to Surpass $250,000

While there are many factors behind Bitcoin's over 100-fold returns in the past two halvings, I believe the biggest reason is the transition of Bitcoin from a speculative asset to a utility asset.

In the next four years, I expect this progress to continue.

With the launch of ETFs and the accumulation of assets, as well as major Wall Street companies increasingly supporting Bitcoin, the asset will further enter the mainstream. If Bitcoin reaches $250,000 in value, then Bitcoin will be a $5 trillion asset. Can it go higher? Certainly. But $250,000 will represent solid progress between halvings, and I believe we will see at least that.