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The Block Research Director: Alameda Assets Decreased by 47% in a Month, But FTX Bankruptcy Probability Approaching 0

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The Block Research Director: Alameda Assets Decreased by 47% in a Month, But FTX Bankruptcy Probability Approaching 0

As the outflow of funds from FTX intensifies, The Block's research director Larry Cermak shared his observations on the data on Twitter, stating that the possibility of FTX going bankrupt is close to 0.

Alameda Research Address Overview

Larry Cermak first shared all the Alameda Research addresses he has collected over time, totaling 29, with a net asset value of about $500 million on 10/1.

However, after the recent events, the total assets have decreased by about $230 million, a 47% decrease, with the current total standing at around $270 million. The decreased amount has mostly flowed into FTX and the institutional market maker Genesis.

Although on-chain data sheds some light on the situation, Larry Cermak also mentioned that on-chain data cannot provide a full picture as Alameda Research can create new wallets and may hold other off-chain assets, making it difficult to track.

Based on the data, Larry Cermak believes:

  1. Alameda Research still has enough funds to buy FTX positions through OTC trading.
  2. The probability of FTX going bankrupt is close to 0%.
  3. There is an obvious liquidity issue as people are withdrawing funds out of caution.

While the likelihood of a mishap is minimal for Larry Cermak, he still advises that during stress tests in the crypto space, it is best to stay safe, indicating that withdrawing funds would be a wise move.