Markus Thielen: Exclusive Bitcoin Bull Market Only Halfway Through, Targeting 125K

BlockBeats interviewed the popular analyst Markus Thielen, who is the Chief Analyst at Matrixport and also founded 10X Research. He played a precise role in predicting the recent fluctuations and surges in Bitcoin. With Bitcoin rising 44% last month and surpassing the $60,000 mark, how does he view the future market trends?

Review of Accurate Predictions:

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Matrixport Analyst: Bitcoin's "Fourth Wave" ends, turning bullish, with a target of $50,000 in the first quarter

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The Bull Market is Only Halfway Through

Markus analyzed the historical halving events and Bitcoin prices as shown in the chart below. It indicates that October 2022 is currently at a low point. His perspective is to buy Bitcoin 14 to 15 months before the halving, rather than entering the market after the halving, as illustrated in the chart:

We are still in the middle of a bull market, and the market could continue until February or September next year.

Estimating Bitcoin Price to Reach $125,000

The past three U.S. presidential elections have coincided with Bitcoin halving cycles. The average annual return rate of Bitcoin in 2012, 2016, and 2020 was 192%. With Bitcoin's price at $40,000 earlier this year, extrapolating a 192% increase suggests that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the end of the year.

Last July, 10X Research also observed another indicator: "When Bitcoin sets a new high within a year, there will be a 300% bounce-back," which also supports the $125,000 figure.

ETFs as the Cause of Bitcoin's Sharp Rise

ETFs represent the institutionalization of Bitcoin. Many asset management companies in the U.S. are using ETFs for their asset allocation decisions, and their funds are in the order of trillions. The impact of funds at this level entering the market is significant, and this is one of the reasons we are witnessing Bitcoin's sharp rise.

This Bull Market is Bitcoin's Bull Market

For this reason, Markus believes that this bull market is very different. The previous bull market was the DeFi summer, with altcoins taking the spotlight, but this time it is more or less focused on Bitcoin.

Currently, Bitcoin's dominance is around 52%. If there is indeed an altcoin rebound, Bitcoin's dominance would need to drop below 50%. Markus has not yet seen a narrative for altcoins at this point.