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JPMorgan: Probability of Ethereum spot ETF approval in May is less than 50%, need to first prove ETH is not a security

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JPMorgan: Probability of Ethereum spot ETF approval in May is less than 50%, need to first prove ETH is not a security

According to a report by The Block, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must first classify ETH as “non-security” before approving a spot Ethereum ETF. Therefore, he estimates the probability of approval in May to be no more than 50%.

Proof of Ethereum Not Being a Security

Last week, as expected by many, the SEC granted approval for 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs in a single sweep. The first two days of trading saw a total volume surpassing $10 billion, raising hopes for the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF in May. VanEck, ARK & 21Shares, and Hashdex all have approval deadlines set for May.

A Look at the management fees of the 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, expected to raise $4 billion on the first day.

Bitcoin spot ETF's trading volume exceeding $10 billion in the first two days – success or a bubble?

Focus shifting to ETH? Analysts optimistic about the approval of an "Ethereum spot ETF" in May this year.

However, Morgan Stanley analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out a crucial factor:

The SEC needs to classify Ethereum as a commodity, not a security, in order to potentially approve an Ethereum spot ETF.

Therefore, Morgan Stanley estimates that the probability of approval in May is not more than 50%.

Recent Comments by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler

Last week, when asked about the possibility of an Ethereum spot ETF, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler advised a cautious approach. He compared recent Bitcoin ETFs to previously approved gold and silver trading products, indicating that the current approvals are limited to "non-securities commodity-like tokens" of Bitcoin. The decision to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs "should by no means indicate that the commission is willing to approve the listing standards of crypto asset securities." He also reiterated: Without prejudging any specific crypto asset, the vast majority of crypto assets are investment contracts and are therefore subject to federal securities laws.