Arthur Hayes: Yen to Rise to 100, Bitcoin Could Hit a Million Pounds, and Shitcoins Will Also Have Their Day

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has once again published a lengthy article, emphasizing the US launching money printing and commenting on the recent appreciation of the Japanese yen, as well as his thoughts on the Treasury Secretary candidate. Hayes believes that the crypto spring will begin early next year, with Bitcoin potentially reaching a million dollars, SOL hitting 250, and even the shitcoin spring will come!

This article reflects Arthur Hayes' personal views and is not investment advice.

USD/JPY Expected to Reach 100

Recently, the USD/JPY exchange rate dropped from 160 to 142, causing a ripple effect in the global financial markets. Many were forced to sell off their assets, a textbook case scenario. Hayes believes that the USD/JPY will reach 100, not only due to hedge funds unwinding the yen carry trade, but also driven by the repatriation of capital from Japanese companies' overseas assets. They will be selling off U.S. treasuries and U.S. stocks, primarily tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google.

Will the Bank of Japan's hawkish interest rate hike to 0.25% mark the end of the cheap yen?

Previously, the Bank of Japan's attempt to raise interest rates met with global discontent. As a result, the Bank of Japan relented and announced it would no longer consider a rate hike. From the perspective of fiat currency liquidity, the worst-case scenario is yen consolidation. With the threat of yen carry trades unwinding behind us, attention is once again on U.S. liquidity.

Next Treasury Secretary - Jamie Dimon

Of course, Hayes continues to hold the view that the U.S. is about to release liquidity and bets that Yellen's successor, the next Treasury Secretary, will not resist injecting market with political benefits by continuing to push U.S. treasuries into the market.

He bets that the next Secretary will be Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan!

Trump's Treasury Secretary nominee: BlackRock's Larry Fink or JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon?

Cryptocurrencies Break Free from Downtrend in September, Bitcoin Eyes Million-Dollar Mark

Arthur Hayes predicts that cryptocurrencies will break free from the sideways downtrend starting in September.

The U.S. election is set for early November, but elections are like flipping a coin. Hayes prefers to sit on the sidelines, waiting to re-enter the crypto market after the U.S. debt ceiling is raised, which he expects to happen in January or February next year.

Once the U.S. debt ceiling is raised, liquidity will flow out from the Treasury and even the Federal Reserve, putting the market back on track. That's when the real bull market will begin. The $1 million Bitcoin price is still the basic assumption.

SOL Targeting 250, Shitcoin Spring is Coming Too

Shitcoin is a Bitcoin-based crypto game with higher beta value. However, in this cycle, Bitcoin and Ethereum have appeared in the form of structural buying through net inflows of ETFs listed on U.S. exchanges. Despite pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum since April, they have escaped the massacre experienced by the shitcoin market.

Hayes believes that only when Bitcoin and Ethereum clearly break through $70,000 and $4,000 respectively, will the spring of shitcoins return. By then, Solana (SOL) will also rise to over $250.