Bernstein: Bitcoin to Resume Uptrend After Halving, Reiterates $150,000 Target Price
Despite the recent weak trend in coin prices, research firm Bernstein still expects Bitcoin to resume its upward trajectory after the halving, reaffirming its $150,000 price target.
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Bitcoin to Hit $150,000 Price by 2025
The Block cited a Bernstein report where analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra predicted in a report to clients on Wednesday that Bitcoin's bullish trajectory is expected to resume post-halving, with mining hash rate adjusted and ETF inflows back to flat/negative over the past 10 days. Furthermore, the addition of spot Bitcoin ETFs and major brokerage firms will continue to provide structural demand for Bitcoin. Therefore, Bernstein maintains its previous view:
Bitcoin is expected to reach a cycle high of $150,000 by 2025.
Bitcoin Price Rises After Each Halving
Bernstein also compared Bitcoin's price movements after each halving, attributing significant volatility in cryptocurrency prices to Bitcoin halving events. Although not directly causal, these events often occur before major bull markets in the Bitcoin market.
Bernstein pointed out:
At today's prices, miners produce/earn approximately $50 million in Bitcoin daily, accounting for only 0.12% of daily Bitcoin trading volume.
Therefore, the focus is no longer on selling pressure but on identifying new demand catalysts within each cycle.
Demand catalysts typically align with new supply reductions following halving events, such as post-pandemic liquidity and corporate purchases of Bitcoin by companies like Tesla, Square, and MicroStrategy, with this cycle being driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs and leading global asset management firms.
Historically, Bitcoin price breakthroughs have occurred after halving events, sometimes within a few months post-halving. However, in the current 2024 cycle, the approval of ETFs in January led to a significant price increase before the halving. In the past 10 days, as ETF inflows slowed and GBTC sold off massively, Bitcoin corrected by around 15%.
Nevertheless, post-correction, the integration of spot Bitcoin ETFs and major brokerage firms will continue to provide structural demand for Bitcoin.
Mining Companies to Outperform Bitcoin in the Next Year
Crypto venture firm Wintermute also noted that miners have been steadily selling BTC recently as a measure to ensure profitability post-halving, reducing the impact on income, while also taking profits due to the rising coin price.
However, Bernstein predicts that as less efficient mining operations become unprofitable, the industry will consolidate towards four leading mining companies: CleanSpark, Marathon, Riot Platform, and Cipher Mining. Additionally, with renewed interest from app developers, Layer 2 scaling infrastructure teams, and NFTs, miners can earn more income from transaction fees. Therefore, Bernstein believes that leading mining companies may outperform Bitcoin in the next 12 months.
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