Three Bitcoin spot ETFs will be delayed, analyst: 90% chance of approval by 1/10

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart believes that the three Bitcoin spot ETFs currently under SEC review are unlikely to pass, but he is optimistic that the first Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved on January 10.

SEC to Review Three Bitcoin Spot ETFs

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart tweeted that the SEC is set to review three Bitcoin spot ETFs in mid-November:

1. 11/17: Hashdex "Hashdex Bitcoin ETF"

2. 11/17: Franklin "Franklin Bitcoin ETF"

3. 11/21: Global X "Global X Bitcoin Trust"

Okay, we're nearing in on deadline dates for 3 spot #Bitcoin ETF applications. I want to get ahead of it because there's a pretty good chance we'll see delay orders from the SEC. Delays WOULD NOT change anything about our views & 90% odds for 19b-4 approval by Jan 10, 2024 pic.twitter.com/LE7sOlHAHM

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 14, 2023

SEC Likely to Postpone, 90% Chance of Approval by 1/10

James Seyffart believes that while it is probable that the SEC will once again postpone the three ETFs mentioned above, the delay does not change his view. He emphasizes that the likelihood of approval for all issuers who have submitted the 19b-4 application documents is as high as 90% by January 10.

He also mentioned the possibility of the SEC rejecting all applications, or simply not wanting all 12 issuers to be approved simultaneously.

Regarding the likelihood of the three ETFs passing this week, he replied:

Due to too many variables, predicting is more like guesswork. Additionally, blockchain media has placed too much emphasis on our tweets, so I wouldn't want to give an actual probability. I can only say that the chances of passing this week are greater than zero but less than 50%.

James Seyffart also previously believed that 11/17 was the first opportunity for approval:

Bitcoin Spot ETF Update: 11/17 is the first chance, with a high 90% chance of approval by January next year