Bitcoin Halving Prediction | Bitcoin halving price increase gradually decreasing, how much will it be for the fourth halving?

With less than a year left until Bitcoin's halving, the cryptocurrency market, which experienced a series of collapses in 2022 including FTX, may see a new dawn next year. However, as Bitcoin's market value continues to grow, its rate of increase appears to be gradually diminishing, even underperforming many large US stocks since 2018. Nevertheless, Bitcoin advocate Jesse Myers remains steadfast in his halving analysis article, asserting that Bitcoin will at least quadruple in value during its fourth halving, reaching between $120,000 and $240,000.

Bitcoin Halving

The Bitcoin block reward has decreased from the original 50, to 25, to 12.5, and currently stands at 6.25 BTC, which will be halved to 3.125 BTC in less than a year.

Despite Bitcoin's existence for many years, the release schedule of block rewards is still relatively early, as shown in the image below.

Historical Trends of Bitcoin Halving

The halving of Bitcoin block rewards is generally expected to be a bullish event, based on the assumption of "constant demand, halving supply," as shown in the image below.

Although the "bullish halving event" is often criticized for only considering scarcity and ignoring actual market demand, Bitcoin's trend has always followed a gradual halving cycle.

The image below shows the post-halving trends of Bitcoin in different cycles:

• Purple: 2012

• Green: 2016

• Blue: 2020

• Yellow: 2012/2020 Average

Bitcoin Halving Predictions

Although Bitcoin's trend has always risen in a halving cycle, the price increase after each halving has significantly decreased after experiencing three halvings.

Author Jesse Myers points out:

• The price stabilizes and rises steadily during the halving-to-all-time-high cycle

• The price increase after each halving gradually diminishes

Furthermore, the time it took from the third halving to reach an all-time high was 1.5 years, longer than the previous two, as Jesse Myers believes unexpected events occurred during the rise:

• China's crypto ban

• The Federal Reserve's shift to quantitative tightening in Q4 2021

• Contract products becoming more common, high leverage de-risking suppressing price increases

Jesse Myers predicts:

I believe Bitcoin will hit a new high before the 2024 halving, and the price will continue to rise after the halving, reaching the peak of the fourth halving cycle between 2024 and 2025. Although the price increase will be reduced, it will still be substantial. Assuming the price at the halving is $30,000 or higher, the peak of the cycle could be 4 to 8 times that, ranging from $120,000 to $240,000.

He emphasizes that such prices are not crazy compared to previous halving trends, but after reaching new highs, a bear market will inevitably follow:

Bitcoin vs. US Stocks

In fact, Bitcoin has underperformed many large US stocks since 2018, as shown by the red line in the image below, with gains only comparable to Amazon and Netflix, while Apple's gains are three times higher and Tesla's are over eight times higher.

Nevertheless, the author still believes that Bitcoin is the best savings tool for the next decade.