ETF issuer VanEck analysis: Ethereum L2 will achieve a market value of 1 trillion dollars by 2030, who will be the winner?

Investment giant VanEck analyzes the L2 emerging market and predicts a staggering $1 trillion market value by early 2030.

L2's Market Value to Grow 30 Times by 2030?

VanEck's prediction is not just a wild guess, but a result of calculated assumptions. VanEck projects future cash flows by using a terminal multiple of 25 times free cash flow (FCF) for L2 and assumes L2 will capture 60% of the market share in the Ethereum smart contract ecosystem. With the current market value of L2 at 33 billion USD, this would represent substantial growth.

Why L2?

According to VanEck, the reason why L2 is receiving so much attention is simple: scalability. While Ethereum is innovative, it's like a powerful car stuck in city traffic - it could do more if not for high costs and slow transaction times during peak periods. Second-layer solutions promise to clear the roads, providing a path to higher transaction volumes and lower costs without sacrificing security. It's a win-win situation for the blockchain highway.

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Which L2 Projects Are Worth Watching?

VanEck has conducted in-depth research on 46 L2 networks, revealing potential winners and dark horses, all competing for a trillion-dollar prize.

They have evaluated each network based on multiple criteria, including transaction costs, developer and user experience, and ecosystem size. Innovations like EIP-4844 have begun to reduce costs, especially in optimistic rollup scenarios, making Mantle, zkSync, and Starknet cost-effective frontrunners.

The Importance of Ecosystem

However, what truly sets an L2 apart is its ecosystem. L2s like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Blast have shown that they can attract users and lock in value, proving they are not just another blockchain project. These ecosystems are crucial for user adoption and long-term success.

This Is a Long Race

Despite the optimistic outlook, VanEck analysts hold a "generally bearish" view on most L2 tokens. They expect a few to dominate while many others may struggle to find footing. The market is competitive, and only projects with strong network effects and robust ecosystems can thrive in the long run.