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SBF featured on Forbes magazine cover: BTC could drop to 10,000

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SBF featured on Forbes magazine cover: BTC could drop to 10,000

The globally influential business magazine "Fortune" interviewed the founder Sam Bankman-Fried yesterday and featured SBF on the cover of Fortune with the headline "The Next Buffett?"

The American business magazine "Fortune" interviewed SBF yesterday (2nd) with the headline "The Next Buffett" and featured SBF on the cover of Fortune, symbolizing FTX as the most influential cryptocurrency enterprise globally, with SBF as a representative figure in the industry.

Here is a summary of the interview:

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Explosive Head Geek + White Knight

"Forbes" describes SBF as a very nice, unassuming guy with an explosive head geek look, whose interests include League of Legends (LOL) and fingertip gyroscopes, making him not look like the most influential person in the crypto industry. However, beneath the geeky exterior, SBF founded the most successful crypto quant company Alameda Research and the acclaimed "best ever" crypto derivatives trading platform FTX.

Aside from being a crypto billionaire (with a net worth of around $11.5 billion), SBF has recently acquired a new identity: a white knight in the crypto industry, saving some struggling crypto startups from liquidation.

Liquidation is positive, BTC may drop to 10,000 yuan

SBF admits that while he predicted the bear market was coming, he did not expect it to come in the form of massive liquidations, nor did he expect it to be this bad. Nevertheless, he believes that two-thirds of the reason for the significant drop in the crypto market is due to the global economy, while the remaining one-third is due to issues within the crypto market itself.

"The worst moment has passed, and although there may be further liquidations, they will not be as bad as before. I believe this bear market is a healthy cleansing for the crypto industry. People may rethink how they value assets and become more grounded."

Although he feels the worst is over, SBF believes that the global economy is a bigger variable.

He estimates that if the Nasdaq index falls by 25% and the Fed raises interest rates to 7%, the world could experience about two and a half years of recession.

If this were to happen, Bitcoin could potentially drop to $10,000 to $15,000. Additionally, there may be a new round of liquidations.

Others fear, while I am greedy?

It is well known that SBF has recently invested in many struggling companies such as BlockFi and Voyager Digital. Regarding these investments, "Forbes" believes that this is practicing Warren Buffet's famous saying: "Be fearful when others are greedy."

SBF also explains his strategy for acquiring shares.

The primary consideration is whether the users of these companies can retrieve their assets, followed by whether this transaction can prevent a chain of liquidations. Finally, it's about whether FTX can get some "good feedback" from these transactions.

"Our mission is not to make sensational acquisitions. The logic here is to make some reasonable deals, even if they are a bit bad but something we can afford." A senior industry source told "Forbes" that SBF's generosity has earned him many things, including a lot of goodwill.

Aside from hoping that the future will indeed turn out as this unnamed source suggests, SBF also explains the reason for his generosity: trust.

Lack of trust is a huge transaction cost, a lesson SBF learned when he first started doing business. "A big part of it is trust. When I used to trade, I really didn't want to worry about whether the other party would try to screw me over in 20 ways behind my back. If there's a lack of trust from both sides, then the deal won't work, right?"

Therefore, in these acquisitions, SBF will set a standard, collaborate in a fair manner, and assure the other party that FTX is not going to pull any tricks behind their back.

"Thinking about things from a mutually beneficial perspective, then we can start thinking about how to share the cake."

Atypical Crypto Hero

The crypto community typically likes to embrace heroic figures, such as Satoshi Nakamoto or Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance.

Although SBF seems to be becoming an object of admiration in the crypto community, he has done things that crypto bros wouldn't do, like donating to Biden's political campaign during the 2020 election.

Forbes' commentary suggests that SBF is now a leader in the crypto community, but this may also provoke discontent among some crypto believers.

Unlike those crypto heroes who entered the blockchain industry with the reasons of "changing the world" or "overthrowing governments," SBF entered the crypto circle purely because he saw money-making opportunities. And altruism is about making money to give back to society as much as possible.

Forbes believes that SBF is different from many in the crypto community, as he does not indulge in luxury goods consumption like yachts, sports cars, or parties, but instead, due to his belief in altruism, has pledged to donate most of his wealth. "I would say this: people who truly believe in this industry will do the right thing. I believe in blockchain because this technology is really useful and can concretely make the world a better place. I think I am an example, representing those who believe in this industry, even if they have different perspectives on the industry."

Will the Crypto Community's Worldview Lead to More Chaos in the World?

The next question is a bit serious and philosophical.

Forbes believes that the world is currently on fire with the rise of authoritarianism, climate crises, etc., and thus there is a need for some form of collectivism, where everyone needs to consider the collective interests and make decisions that benefit the whole.

However, the crypto community happens to be oriented towards liberalism and individualism, focused on individual interests.

Forbes poses a question: Could the rise of crypto (currency) lead to a decline in civic order?

SBF finds this question a bit odd. He believes that both collectivism and individualism can resist authoritarianism. Collectivism considers the interests of the group and resists authoritarianism, while the individualism represented by crypto currencies inherently dislikes authoritarianism, which also, in a way, resists authoritarianism.

SBF believes that a significant reason for the world's current problems comes from domination and trampling on other groups, which is exactly what the crypto community abhors. However, at the same time, we also need to collectively engage and address the world's problems. "You have to engage, and cryptocurrency may be part of the solution to some problems, but it won't be the whole answer. It's unlikely that a single tool can solve all problems."

Can Bitcoin Reach $100,000 in Two Years?

At the request of Forbes, SBF analyzed the future prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

SBF believes that Ethereum is difficult to predict, as with the upcoming merge, Ethereum's volatility will increase, but he cannot determine the direction it will take. Compared to Ethereum, Bitcoin is easier to predict, but the major premise is that the overall economy will not worsen. SBF believes that Bitcoin will gradually recover from the big liquidation, and the end of liquidation is a big positive.

Additionally, Bitcoin's regulatory framework is gradually becoming clearer, which is an external positive impact. So if there are significant regulatory positives next year, then if lucky, Bitcoin could really reach $100,000. "Regulation is an external positive impact on Bitcoin, so if there are significant regulatory positives next year, we might really see $100,000 next year. But you know, it's hard to predict."

"But if you tell me at the end of the year that Bitcoin could reach $35,000 next year, I would think there's a chance."