Arthur Hayes: Central banks around the world initiate rate-cutting cycle, going all-in on Bitcoin and Shitcoins

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes previously warned everyone to closely monitor the USD/JPY trend. If the Japanese yen depreciates to the 200 level, it will trigger a gamble among the United States, China, and Japan, ultimately leading to significant devaluation of fiat currencies and causing Bitcoin to rise to $1 million.

Arthur Hayes: Yen depreciation to 200 will accelerate Bitcoin's upward momentum, BTC to reach a million dollars

Interest Rate Differentials between Japan and Other Countries Begin to Narrow

Hayes pointed out that if the interest rate differential between the US and Japan continues, investors will continue to sell the Japanese yen, causing it to depreciate. This will harm China's export competitiveness, forcing the Chinese yuan to depreciate as well. However, the Biden administration may not be able to tolerate the depreciation of the yuan before the election, as this would lead to continued job losses in the US and could cost him the election.

However, the situation has changed! In addition to China already cutting reserve requirements to provide market liquidity earlier this year, Arthur Hayes also compiled a chart of policy interest rates of various central banks, including the following:

• Already in an interest rate cutting cycle: Bank of Canada (purple line), European Central Bank (ECB) (yellow line)
• Expected to follow with interest rate cuts: US (white line), Bank of England (red line)
• Still at the low point of 0.1%: Bank of Japan (green line)

Bank of Canada takes the lead in interest rate cuts, Nvidia and TSMC stock prices continue to reach new highs

USD Depreciation, Long Bitcoin, and Then "Shitcoin"!

Hayes believes that if the market believes that the interest rate differentials between the Japanese yen and the US dollar, euro, pound, and other fiat currencies will narrow over time, it will buy yen and sell everything else! Faced with the depreciation of global fiat currencies, Bitcoin will be the best-performing asset,

As the People's Bank of China, Bank of Canada, and European Central Bank have successively cut interest rates, kicking off the June central bank fireworks, this will help cryptocurrencies break free from the summer doldrums in the Northern Hemisphere. Although this was not Hayes's original expected scenario, he initially expected it to start in August.

However, the trend is clear.

Central banks are beginning a loose cycle. Long Bitcoin, and then "Shitcoin"!