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Arthur Hayes on the Importance of Narrative: It's not about the technology, telling a story is the key to project success.

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Arthur Hayes on the Importance of Narrative: It

The founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, discusses in his lengthy article "Chief Story Officer" the way humans deal with uncertainty and the importance of narrative in investment decisions. He emphasizes that investors in the cryptocurrency space are more interested in compelling and engaging stories that have the power to influence, rather than just focusing on technical or factual trends.

Hayes: We Are All Speculators

After strongly criticizing the Cardano ADA token yesterday, Arthur Hayes later released an article titled "Chief Story Officer" to explain the importance of narrative in the crypto market, often surpassing the technology itself. He has now shifted his focus to focus on shitcoins.

BitMEX founder slams ADA as shit, tells Charles Hoskinson: Go buy some ETH

The article first mentioned the claim that people are all speculators, believing that everyone's brain constantly constructs probability maps of the environment and makes decisions based on perceived probabilities of various outcomes, rather than objective facts:

As we cannot accurately estimate the probabilities of each variable and data, our decisions often follow the opinions and actions of others.

Hayes: Technology Doesn't Matter, Story Does

Hayes claims that the above argument can also be applied to the crypto market, believing that investors often rely on others' evaluations and the extent of narrative dissemination to make investment decisions, thus the importance of narrative must outweigh the technology itself:

The story behind a token or project is often more important than the technology because the public generally finds it difficult to evaluate the quality of the technology but can easily understand the quality of the story.

He also added, "It's the story that shapes investors' perception of a specific token, not the objective facts or the value of the technology. Therefore, only a successful story can drive the token price up."

Hayes: I Am the Maelstrom "Chief Story Officer"

Here, mentioning his position as the Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, Hayes joked that he should change it to "Chief Story Officer":

I am responsible for telling stories. The more concise and compelling the story, the faster it spreads. The wider the story spreads, the more the token related to that story can appreciate.

He explained that the purpose of packaging projects with narratives is to influence investors' emotions and behaviors, using himself as an example:

I would rather invest in a token with a perceived success probability of 0.01%, but its narrative is growing virally, rather than a token with a perceived success probability of 50%, but its narrative has reached a stage where it is widely known by the public.

From "Doubt" to "Optimism"

Hayes emphasized that when his company, Maelstrom, invests in crypto projects, it is important to determine which project has the best probability of success in terms of story, and that probability is related to the widespread dissemination of the story, including macro stories like industry trends and micro stories like the project's competitive advantages:

By raising investors' expectations of a project from "never possible success" to "possible success," the maximum investment return can be achieved.

In other words, a good investment lies in a team's ability to transform investors' views of their project from "doubt" to "optimism" through telling an engaging story, causing the story to spread widely and increasing the likelihood of success.

Hinting at the Coming Season of Shitcoins?

In addition, with the recent approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the U.S. and the highly anticipated potential Ethereum spot ETF event, Hayes believes that these narratives and market sentiments will continue to drive up the prices of these two assets, while he himself will prioritize focusing on shitcoins:

I already hold BTC and ETH, and may continue to buy, but overall I am shifting my focus to shitcoins.

Hayes: I Will Keep Telling Stories, Whether You Buy or Not

At the end of the article, Hayes also stated that in the future, his articles will focus on tokens held by Maelstrom, already launched or soon to be launched, and he will continue to spread token information far and wide through stories:

I don't care if you have traded any of the tokens I mentioned. What I care about is whether I have provided compelling stories and supporting arguments that make you actively discuss it with others.

At the same time, he also revealed the topics and crypto projects he will discuss: