Will the floor price of Bored Ape Yacht Club surpass 80 ETH by the end of the month? SOSMarket provides insights on turning knowledge into profit through market understanding.

OpenDAO, which previously airdropped SOS tokens to all users who had traded on OpenSea, has recently launched a new protocol called SOSMarket. SOSMarket is an NFT prediction market where users can monetize their knowledge by making accurate predictions based on their understanding of the NFT market.

SOSMarket Introduction

While SOSMarket positions itself as an NFT prediction market, its website actually covers various topics such as cryptocurrencies, sports, politics, and games. However, NFT remains the most traded topic currently. Under each topic, you can find a variety of prediction questions.

For example, one of the most participated prediction questions currently is: "Will the floor price of Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) be above 80ETH after 1/31?" Participants can choose between YES and NO, with an initial price of 0.5ETH for each answer. The price will fluctuate based on the proportion of participants selecting each option. In other words, if the proportion of YES selections continues to increase, the initial price of 0.5ETH will gradually move towards 1ETH.

After the prediction question concludes, those who predicted correctly will receive ETH rewards based on their purchase amount. For instance, if someone buys 1 YES share for 0.5ETH and the prediction is correct, they will receive 1 ETH as a reward. Conversely, if someone buys 0.1 NO share for 0.05ETH and the prediction is incorrect, they will lose the amount they invested.

Note: The magnitude of price changes is related to the depth of ETH in each prediction question. The higher the depth, the smaller the price fluctuations. Liquidity and trading volume are displayed above each prediction question.

The purchase confirmation will clearly show the share acquired and the potential returns. In the example below, each share is valued at 0.58ETH, but considering a 5% trading fee, one needs 0.611ETH to purchase one full share. A correct prediction will yield a profit of 0.42ETH, resulting in a return rate of approximately 72.3%.

Note: This is similar to the gameplay of FTX's Trump election contract.

Creating Prediction Questions

In addition to participating in prediction questions, SOSMarket allows users to create their own questions. However, not all users are eligible to do so; only users holding over 100 million SOS tokens can create questions.

The image below shows an example of creating a question, requiring input of the question, image, category, and deadline.

After formulating the question, initial liquidity must be provided, which is divided into two parts for the Yes and No options. x*y=k, where in this case, x = Yes option, y = No option, and k = liquidity.

Furthermore, even non-question creators can provide liquidity, and this liquidity will be returned to the providers after the prediction question concludes. Each liquidity provider can earn a 2% trading fee reward.

Note: When adding liquidity to prediction questions where the prices of the two options are imbalanced, only a portion of the invested ETH will be converted into liquidity, while the remainder will automatically purchase the prediction with the lower amount.

There are an increasing number of NFT-related prediction questions on the platform. Interested readers can visit and try predicting to see if their insights are accurate. However, some questions currently lack depth, leading to significant slippage, so please be cautious before making predictions.

Note: SOSMarket emerged from a fork of Polkamarket on Moonriver. For more in-depth information, you can refer to the official guide.